Is China now the world’s only climate hope?

In the global climate landscape, China holds a uniquely pivotal role. While it remains the top emitter of greenhouse gases, it also possesses the unparalleled capacity to spearhead the world’s clean energy transition. Its growing climate commitments now stand in stark contrast to the USA, which under the Trump administration actively works to derail global climate efforts.

During a video statement to the 80th Session of the United Nations in New York, President Xi Jinping declared that China would reduce its country’s greenhouse gas emissions by 7 – 10 percent across all sectors of its economy by 2035 while “striving to do better”.

Xi also announced commitments to further expand the country’s installed capacity of wind and solar power to 3 600 GW and to increase the country’s share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to more than 30 percent.

“China will, by 2035, reduce economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by 7 percent to 10 percent from peak levels, striving to do better; increase the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to over 30 percent; expand the installed capacity of wind and solar power to over six times the 2020 levels, striving to bring the total to 3,600 gigawatts; scale up the total forest stock volume to over 24 billion cubic meters; make new energy vehicles the mainstream in the sales of new vehicles; expand the National Carbon Emissions Trading Market to cover major high-emission sectors; and basically establish a climate-adaptive society.

These targets represent China’s best efforts based on the requirements of the Paris Agreement. Meeting these targets requires both painstaking efforts by China itself and a supportive and open international environment. We have the resolve and confidence to deliver on our commitments.”

This is the first time that China, the world’s biggest polluter, has committed to an absolute target to cut its emissions. While some had hoped for a much tougher target commitment, the enormous scale of China’s emissions means that even a small or modest reduction in the country’s greenhouse gas emissions would be highly significant for the climate.

A 10 percent reduction in China’s emissions would equate to about 1.4 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions per year, a substantial amount. But critics warn that to be able to limit global warming to 1.5 °C requires China to make much greater reductions in its emissions.

“Anything less than 30% is definitely not aligned with 1.5 degrees,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

But analysts seem somewhat confident that the Chinese economy will continue to decarbonize and that the country will achieve – and even exceed – its climate targets.

“This target falls short of many people’s expectations,” Yao Zhe, global policy advisor at Greenpeace East Asia, said in a response to Xi’s speech. “What’s hopeful is that the actual decarbonization of China’s economy is likely to exceed its target on paper.”

While only time will tell if China will be able to reach, or even exceed, its modest climate targets, one thing is for sure: by not announcing more ambitious climate targets, China missed a golden opportunity to further cement the image of China as a responsible force on the global stage with far-reaching international influence — especially when compared to the US and the Trump administration.

China’s massive growth in renewables is unmatched

When it comes to renewable energy, there is no other nation that comes even close to match China’s scale and growth. China’s expansion of renewable and clean energy technologies — such as EVs, batteries and solar — is so massive it’s hard to grasp the actual scale of it.

Just take solar power as an example. China added 256 GW of solar capacity during the first half of 2025 — which is twice as much solar capacity as the rest of the world combined. India, which had the second-highest amount of installed solar capacity, only managed 24 GW. And the US — the world’s only superpower — installed 21 GW. In just a few months, China managed to add more new solar capacity than the US has installed in total. I remember when Germany was considered world-leading in solar power — both in terms of capacity and technologies. Now in just six months, China has added two times Germany’s total installed solar capacity, completely dwarfing the former solar leader.

This did not happen by accident. China’s massive expansion into renewable and clean energy technologies is the direct result of political decisions and is an integral part of the country’s industrial policy. The numbers we’re seeing in the first half of this year is the result of a late stage Five-Year Plan for renewable energy — which is the country’s 14th such five-year plan for renewables. The Chinese government has also encouraged solar power by subsidizing its production and manufacturing with an estimated $50 billion USD during the years 2011–2023, which is equal to only one year of German defence spending. It matters where you invest your money.

And this boom in renewable and clean energy capacity and technologies has spilled outside Chinese borders — especially onto the developing world. Since 2023, Chinese companies have invested more than $100 billion USD in clean technologies in overseas markets, helping to speed up the global energy transition and decarbonization in what analysts has dubbed a “green capital tsunami”.

The Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University has detailed how Chinese companies have pledged between $227 to $250 billion USD across various overseas green manufacturing projects. “This surge of overseas green manufacturing investment is unprecedented; it now surpasses the USD 200 billion (in current 2024 dollars) invested by the US over four years of the Marshall Plan,” the authors of the report writes.

One of those overseas markets is Africa, which saw an 60 percent increase in solar panel imports from China during the past year, with 20 African countries importing a record amount over that period. Chinese trade and exports of solar panels, EVs, and batteries have resulted in EVs being adopted in countries such as Turkey, Indonesia, and Malaysia at a pace that matches or even exceeds developed markets. It has also resulted in about two-thirds of emerging new markets now having a larger share of solar power than the US. Wind and solar installations by Chinese companies have allowed countries such as Mexico, Bangladesh, and Malaysia to produce more renewable-made electricity than the US in just a few years. It’s estimated that China’s solar exports in 2024 alone resulted in cutting global carbon emissions by 4 billion metric tons, equivalent to about 40 days of emissions. And China’s investments in EVs and batteries is expected to reduce global oil demand by 5 million barrels a day by 2030. China now has more renewable energy capacity than the next 13 countries combined, and more than four times than the US, which is in second place.

Has China reached peak-fossil fuels?

It’s actually mind-boggling how quickly China has managed to scale up its green energy sector and industries to these unparallel levels. The massive growth in renewables has clearly resulted in emission reductions and increased decarbonization not just in China but across the world. And that’s obviously encouraging for the global fight against climate change. For us to be able to have a fighting chance against the climate crisis, we need China to continue to churn out cheap and good renewables and technologies for the world market.

But as mentioned before, China’s emissions are on such an enormous scale that China itself needs to dramatically start to cut its fossil fuels and emissions. That’s why it’s such good news that China has finally committed to an absolute target to cut its emissions. Because this absolutely massive growth in renewables has so far not been enough to offset the rise of fossil fuels in China.

Luckily, that may actually be changing and China might have reached peak fossil fuels. According to an analysis by Carbon Brief, the most recent peak in Chinese emissions was in March 2024 and since then emissions have actually decreased by 1 percent, year-over-year. This reduction is being driven by the Chinese power sector, which has seen a significant drop in emissions thanks to the growth of renewable and clean energy sources.

This is not the first time China’s emissions have seen a reduction over the course of a year, it has happened before in 2009, 2012, 2015 and 2022. However, in those previous cases, the emission reduction has been the result of a decline in the Chinese economy — such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Chinese housing crisis. This is the first time that the drop is caused not by economic issues but by the transformation and decarbonization of the country’s energy sector.

And this is noteworthy, because globally speaking, there has never been a real “transition” as no fossil fuel has actually ever been replaced by another since the 19th century to the present day. Instead, the use of all energy sources has continued to increase with the rising energy demand, and fossil fuels have been stacked on top of each other while more and more have been added without any being actually lost. Despite a growth in the country’s energy demand, it seems China has actually managed to start to replace fossil fuels, mainly its coal and gas, with renewable and clean energy sources. Considering China’s size and weight, let’s hope this transformation will also have similar global follow effects.

But the authors of the analysis warn that a one percent decrease in one year is small enough that it could easily be reversed if conditions — political or economic — changes. But they conclude that “there is potential for China’s emissions to continue to fall and for the country to achieve substantial absolute emissions reductions over the next five years”.

While China leads, USA obstructs climate efforts

In his statement at the UN, Chinese President Xi called on the international community to “stay focused on the right direction” and further increase global cooperation and efforts on climate change, even though “some country are acting against it”.

There really should be no doubt by now which country is acting against global climate efforts. USA is that country.

The US — and especially the Trump administration — stands as a stark contrast to China’s efforts.

Xi and China has expressed their determination and willingness to stem climate killing emissions and push for a global energy transformation. Trump and the US, on the other hand, has called such efforts a “hoax” and a “con job” while warning countries that they will “fail” if they choose renewables over fossil fuels. Here are just some excerpts from Trump’s speech at the 80th Session of the United Nations in New York:

“The carbon footprint is a hoax made up by people with evil intentions and they’re heading down a path of total destruction.

[…] If you don’t get away from this green scam, your country is going to fail and I’m really good at predicting things. You know, they actually said during the campaign, they had a hat, the best-selling hat, Trump was right about everything. And I don’t say that in a braggadocious way, but it’s true. I’ve been right about everything.

And I’m telling you, that if you don’t get away from the green energy scam, your country is going to fail.[…] It’s nonsense. You know, it’s interesting. In the United States we have still radicalized environmentalists, and they want the factories to stop. Everything should stop. No more cows. We don’t want cows anymore. I guess they want to kill all the cows. They want to do things that are just unbelievable, and you have it too.

[…] And if you add coal, we have the most of any nation in the world. Clean — I call it clean beautiful coal. You can do things today with coal that you couldn’t have done ten years ago, 15 years. So, I have a little standing order in the White House, never use the word coal. Only use the words clean, beautiful coal.”

And it doesn’t stop at just some crazy ramblings. In the US, Trump is actively sabotaging the country’s energy transformation and decarbonization by withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement, issuing climate-killing economic budgets, and stopping renewable energy projects — such as the major offshore Revolution Wind farm, which was forced to stop construction even though it was nearly finished constructed. Another major renewable energy project that was recently stopped due to Trump’s policies was the Esmeralda 7 solar project, which was supposed to be Nevada’s biggest solar project to date and once constructed it would’ve supplied 6.2 gigawatts of power — which is equal to around three Hoover Dams.

And globally, Trump has denounced the UN’s sustainable development goals, and refused to attend the upcoming climate summit in Brazil next month, among other things. Trump and his administration are putting the full political and economical weight of the US to pressure other countries to also stop their transition from fossil fuels, relax their climate pledges, and encourage them to use more gas and oil — preferably from American companies.

For example, the Trump administration recently signed a deal with the European Union (EU) in which the bloc agreed to purchase $750 billion USD of American oil and gas over a three-year period in exchange for reduced tariffs. The deal is directly in conflict with EU plans to reduce the use of fossil fuels among its member nations. In fact, almost all trade deals by the Trump administration have included various requirements to purchase American oil and gas. South Korea has promised to buy $100 billion USD of gas and both Taiwan and Japan has promised to invest billions in gas and fossil fuel projects in the US.

And with the help from Saudi Arabia, Russia and other petrostates, Trump and the US recently managed to stop a global agreement to slash greenhouse gas emissions from the shipping sector. The Trump administration had threatened to punish countries with tariffs, visa restrictions and port fees if they voted for the agreement.

“They are clearly using various tools in an attempt to increase the use of fossil fuels around the world instead of decrease,” said Jennifer Morgan, Germany’s former special envoy for climate action. Or as Bill McKibben described it: “It’s a shakedown, not an argument, and it couldn’t be more thuggish.”

It’s becoming increasingly apparent — and painfully so — that there now exists two competing models of energy and political influence in the world today. While China represents green technologies and sustainable development, the US and its allies in the West represents fossil fuels and wars.

But I firmly believe that it is simply too late to stop the green energy transition. Trump and his administration can block and delay, sure, but the next big transition is a green one. And China’s green-tech dominance will make sure that the future belongs to China and those nations that dare to stand up against Trump and successfully transforms and decarbonize their economies.

Because after all, what can the US really offer anymore? “With a one-time buy of a bunch of Chinese tech, you control your own energy future: China, after all, doesn’t actually own the sun,” which Bill McKibben so correctly pointed out. Or as David Fickling at Bloomberg wrote:

“Right now, Beijing is offering cheap, clean power, employment, trade and a route to prosperity. Washington is offering tariffs, policy chaos, White nationalist memes and South Korean workers in shackles after a raid on an EV battery factory. This is no way to win the grand strategic contest of the 21st century.”

Just a few decades ago, it seemed like the US and the West would lead the world by decarbonizing rapidly and exporting green technologies that would allow developing nations to leapfrog their sustainable development efforts. But instead, it is China’s leadership that is making this happen, and for the first time in centuries, the US (and the West) is no longer the leader in future technology, but the follower — far behind China.

And no, I am not saying that China is the world’s climate hero. China can rightfully be criticised for their climate inaction and financial support of fossil fuel expansion around the world. There is no denying that China are the cause for a lot of the damage to our climate and that they have the capabilities and responsibilities to do much more good when it comes to climate change (and no, that doesn’t take away the fact that the West has a huge historical responsibility for climate change due to its disproportionately high cumulative emissions since the Industrial Revolution).

But compared to the US, the world’s only superpower, I can’t help shake the feeling that China — and not the so-called “leader of the free world” (whatever that means today when fascists are in power in the White House and Gaza lies in ruins) — is our only hope today.