The oceans are at record temperatures – and could get warmer due to El Niño
Oceans have reached unprecedented warmth for this time of year, with scientists warning that man-made warming and emerging El Niño conditions could usher in prolonged periods of extreme heat, intensified storms, and further temperature records.
The oceans are warmer than ever before at this time of year, according to new data from the EU’s climate service Copernicus.
This May was ranked as the second-warmest May month globally, with both air and sea surface temperatures remaining close to record levels. And at the end of last month, average global sea surface temperature crossed the previous June record set in 2024.
Scientists say the record-breaking ocean temperatures are being driven by man-made climate change and the start of an El Niño weather event.
“With ocean temperatures at these levels and El Niño on the horizon, we are likely to see more temperature records broken in the coming months,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus Climate Change Service.
In early June, the temperature in the oceans had increased by 0.5 degrees and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that the El Niño weather phenomenon had officially begun.
Forecasts suggest that we could be facing a so-called super El Niño this year, and that it could be one of the strongest ever recorded. Temperatures in the tropical Pacific waters must be more than 2 degrees above average for it to be considered a Super El Niño event. And NOAA predicts that there is currently a 63 percent chance that this El Niño will become a super El Niño.
Warmer oceans fuels heatwaves, and increase the severity and intensity of storms, and makes extreme rainfall and flooding more likely. Buontempo warns that the new heat records could be the beginning of a new phase “that once again leads us into uncharted territory.”
What’s interesting to note here is that the unusually early heatwave in Europe this summer was not influenced by El Niño. A scientific analysis ruled out any natural variability of the weather, such as the El Niño event, as an explanation to the extreme heat.
The heatwave was caused by a blocked high-pressure system trapping hot air over Europe and drawing warm air up from the Sahara, which is common during European summers. But the extreme level of heat that Europeans experienced was caused and supercharged by global warming. As such, the extreme European heatwave wouldn’t have been possible without man-made climate change.