Dr Gideon Polya

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  1. The State of Victoria, Australia, is the worst polluting state in Australia which in turn is one of the worst countries in the world for annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution. However the new ultra-conservative government of Victoria is trying to increase greenhouse gas pollution in all kinds of ways and has just announced its intention to scrap an existing plan for "20% off GHG pollution by 2020". At the end of March, The Age On-line reported that the Baillieu Liberal Party-National Party Coalition Government of Victoria, Australia, had decoded to scrap Victoria’s plan to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% by 2020: “A plan to cut Victoria’s greenhouse gas emissions by 20 per cent over the next decade is set to be dumped by the Baillieu government on the basis that it would merely lighten the load imposed on other states. An independent review of the state’s key climate change laws, to be released today, has found ‘‘no compelling case’’ to keep the target following the introduction of the Commonwealth’s minimum target to cut emissions by 5 per cent, to be mainly achieved through Labor’s carbon tax.†The Age kindly published my following comments on the article. The pro-coal, pro-gas, anti-environment Brumby Labor Government thoroughly deserved to be kicked out but its successor the pro-coal, pro-gas, anti-environment Baillieu Coalition Government is even worse and deserves the same fate even more so under the fundamental voter strategy of "Punish the incompetent incumbent". The anti-environment Baillieu (Fail you) Government: 1. allowed cattle into the Alpine National Park, 2. sabotaged Victoria's wind and solar energy industries, 3. backs logging of Victoria's native forests (the best forest carbon sinks in the world), 4. is promoting massive expansion of exploitation of Victoria's 430 billion tonnes of brown coal (complete combustion would yield 520 billion tonnes of CO2 or 87% of the global terminal budget of 600 billion tonnes of CO2 that can be emitted before zero emissions in 2050), 5. backs and subsidizes expansion of dirty gas and dirty coal burning for power, 6. now scraps a "20% off greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution by 2020" target, and 7. ignores the shocking reality that Victoria is among the worst annual per capita GHG polluters in the world.†In 2009 the WBGU which advises the German Government on climate change estimated that for a 75% chance of avoiding a disastrous 2C temperature rise (EU policy) the World must emit no more than 600 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) between 2010 and zero emissions in 2050. Australia's domestic plus exported greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is so high that it had already used up its "fair share" of this terminal GHG pollution budget by mid-2011 and is now stealing the entitlement of all other countries, including impoverished and global warming threatened countries like Somalia and Bangladesh (see “Shocking analysis by country of years left to zero emissions†and “2011 Climate Change Course’). Victoria, like the rest of Australia, is committed to remorselessly increasing GHG pollution despite the fact that Victoria is the dirtiest state in one of the worst GHG polluting countries in the World. Thus “annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution†in units of “tonnes CO2-equivalent per person per year†(2005-2008 data) is 0.9 (Bangladesh), 0.9 (Pakistan), 2.2 (India), less than 3 (many African and Island countries), 3.2 (the Developing World), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 16 (the Developed World), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; or 64 in 2010 if Australia’s huge Exported CO2 pollution is included). Noting that the world population is expected to reach 9.5 billion by 2050 (UN Population Division) , it is estimated that the world is facing a worsening Climate Genocide involving deaths of 10 billion people this century, this including roughly twice the present population of particular mainly non-European groups, specifically 6 billion under-5 year old infants, 3 billion Muslims in a terminal Muslim Holocaust, 2 billion Indians, 1.3 billion non-Arab Africans, 0.5 billion Bengalis, 0.3 billion Pakistanis and 0.3 billion Bangladeshis. (see Climate Genocide). What can decent people do? Decent people must (a) inform everyone they can and ( urge international action to force climate criminal, climate racist Australia to get to zero emissions. Such actions might include, sanctions, boycotts, green tariffs, sporting boycotts, International Court of Justice litigations and International Criminal Court prosecutions.
  2. Australia is a world leader in annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution. Pro-coal, pro-gas Australian PM Julia Gillard has an appalling record of climate change inaction falsely dressed up as the opposite. The biggest and most outrageous untruth of Gillard Labor is that it is "tackling climate change" for a "clean energy future", as systematically set out below. 1. Among PM Gillard's first acts in June 2010, after the Coup that removed the very popularly elected PM Kevin Rudd, was to approve export of dried brown coal from Victoria to Asia that is expected to generate 59 million tonnes of CO2 annually by 2020. 2. In Australian Federal politics the Liberal Party-National Party Coalition Opposition and the Labor Government (aka the Lib-Labs) have the same official climate change policy of a derisory 5% off Australia’s 2000 domestic GHG pollution by 2020 and unlimited GHG pollution through coal and gas exports. The Labs differ from the Libs in how they will attempt to achieve this appalling outcome. Thus the Coalition has a Direct Action policy involving biochar, re-afforestation and subsidies for a transition to lower GHG pollution. In stark contrast, Labor under PM Julia Gillard has actually no intention of even achieving this derisory 5% reduction in GHG pollution in 2020 relative to that in 2000. Labor has legislated a Carbon Tax-Emissions Trading Scheme that as shown by Treasury analysis (see its 2011 report "Strong Growth, Low Pollution") will mean that Australia’s domestic GHG pollution in 2020 will be 1.1 times bigger than that in 2000 rather than 5% smaller. 3. Success in “tackling climate change†is surely measured in terms of GHG pollution reduction but Australia’s Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution was 1,077 Mt CO2-e (CO2 equivalent) in 2000 and is expected under Labor policy to reach about 1,799 Mt CO2-e annually by 2020 (a 1.7-fold increase) and 4,490 Mt CO2-e annually in 2050 (a 4.2-fold increase) (see “2011 Climate Change Courseâ€) . 4. It can be estimated that the domestic plus exported GHG pollution by Australia between 2010 and 2050 will total 100 billion tonnes CO2-e, 17% of the World’s terminal CO2 pollution budget of 600 billion tonnes CO2 as adjudged by the WBGU that advises the German Government on climate change. Thus Australia with currently about 22 million x 100/7,000 million = 0.3% of the World’s population will produce 17% of the last 600 billion tonnes of CO2 pollution permitted for the whole World between now and zero emissions in 2050. Australia is assuming a right to pollute (100 millions tonnes /22 million people)/(500 million tonnes /6,978 million people) = 63 times more per capita than other human beings over the next 40 years. 5. Labor’s plan essentially ignores Agriculture whereas World Bank analysts have recently estimated that Livestock alone contributes over 5!% of global man-made GHG pollution, which in turn they estimate to be about 50% bigger than hitherto thought (see Robert Goodland and Jeff Anfang. “Livestock and climate change. What if the key actors in climate change are … cows, pigs and chickens?â€). The Carbon Tax is mostly a futile cycle of taxing major polluters and then returning most of the receipts to consumers to pay for elevated prices for power, goods and services. The ETS approach has been empirically unsuccessful, is disastrously counterproductive and is inherently fraudulent because the Australian Government will dishonestly issue licences for Australians to pollute the one common atmosphere of all countries on Earth. Labor’s dishonest, spin-driven Carbon Tax-ETS- Ignore Agriculture (CTETSIA) policy is a disastrous scheme for actual climate change inaction while pretending to do the opposite. 6. PM Gillard repeatedly talks of "160 million tonnes" of CO2-e to be saved in 2020. However Treasury modelling has found, and Labor has confirmed, that this will largely come from international purchase of Carbon Credits from tropical Third Word topical countries. 7. Under Labor policy Queensland coal exports will rise from 156 million tonnes in 2011 to 944 million tonnes in 2020 (see "Australian, Canadian & US oil & gas threaten Mankind, Barrier Reef & Biosphere"). 8. Under Labor policy, Queensland coal shipping will increase from 1,722 ships in 2011 to 10,150 in 2020, this increased traffic and port dredging endangering the World Heritage Great Barrier Reef. (see Greenpeace report entitled “Boom Goes the Reef. Australia’s coal export boom and the industrialisation of the Great Barrier Reefâ€, March 2012). 9. Several weeks ago Gillard Labor renewed its commitment of $100 million towards the proposed, dirty, coal-fired HRL power station in Victoria. 10. Under Gillard Labor coal exports are increasing at 2.4% annually and Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) exports at 9% annually. 11. Gillard Labor's last climate change betrayal has been to abolish the solar hot water subsidy, a retrograde move that is set to wipe out the green solar hot water industry. 12. Gillard Labor declares that “gas is clean†or “gas is cleaner†and believes that its Carbon Tax-ETS strategy will hasten a coal burning to gas burning transition. This ignores the latest science that says that gas burning for power can be much dirtier GHG-wise than coal burning. In short, methane is the major component of natural gas, leaks (3.3% US average, 7.9% if derived from hydraulic fracturing or “fracking†for coal seam gas) and is 105 times worse than CO2 as a GHG on a 20 year time scale with aerosol impacts considered (see “Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissionsâ€). With existing plants in Victoria, Australia, 3.3% leakage means that gas burning is just as dirty greenhouse gas (GHG)-wise as burning coal but at 7.9% systemic leakage the GHG pollution from gas burning will be twice that from burning coal (see "Gas is not clean energy"). 13. Gillard Labor is supporting the huge roll-out of Coal Seam Gas (CSG) in Eastern Australia that is set to despoil landscapes, salinize and otherwise pollute agricultural land , deplete and pollute aquifers, increase GHG pollution through systemic gas leakage and add to Australia’s already huge and disproportionate GHG pollution. 14. In 2009 the German Advisory Council on Climate Change (WBGU) determined that for a 75% chance of avoiding a 2 degree C temperature rise, the World must pollute less than 600 billion tonnes of CO2 between 2010 and essentially zero emissions in 2050. Unfortunately, Australia (through disproportionately huge annual fossil fuel burning and exports) had already used up its “fair share†of this terminal greenhouse gas (GHG) budget by mid-2011 and it now stealing the entitlement of impoverished nations such as Somalia and Bangladesh (see "Shocking analysis by country of years left to zero emissions"). 15. Greens leader Dr Bob Brown is in dispute with PM Julia Gillard over her backsliding over an agreement on logging of Tasmanian forests: “"She signed off on the 7th of August (2011) that there would be an immediate halt to the destruction of the high-conservation value forests of Tasmania. When she keeps up her word on that matter - her signed public word on that matter - we'll be having meetings with her.†(see The Australian). The South East Australian Eucalyptus regnans forests are the best forest carbon sinks in the world (see “Re-evaluation of forest biomass carbon stocks and lessons from the world's most carbon-dense forestsâ€). 16. Ultimately one must judge a government on how well it has been prepared to “tackle climate change†by the annual GHG pollution during its administration. Labor came to power at the end of 2007 when Australia’s domestic plus exported GHG pollution was about 1,363 million tonnes CO2-e and will face the electorate in 2013 when, after 6 years, it will be about 1,497 million tonnes CO2-e, or roughly 10% bigger than under the conservative Liberal Government back in 2007. Labor will have had 6 years to "tackle climate change", is facing utter failure and should be kicked out following the principle "punish the incompetent incumbent". PM Julia Gilard’s broken pre-election pledge that "There will be no carbon tax under a government I lead", her pre-Coup pledges of loyalty to PM Kevin Rudd, her backsliding on promised poker machine gambling reforms, and her recent assertion that stories of an offer to get former NSW Premier Bob Carr as a Senator and Foreign Minister were "completely untrue" are the least of the incorrect assertions of PM Julia Gillard. To paraphrase the title of a song from the Broadway musical "Paint Your Wagon" (1951), "They call the wind Ju-liar". Utterly betrayed, pro-environment Labor voters will vote 1 Green and put Labor last until it reverts to decent Labor values, not the least of which is being truthful.
  3. Fossil fuel burning yielding the greenhouse gas (GHG) carbon dioxide (CO2) is a major component of man-made global warming. In relation to carbon pollution from the burning of fossil fuels, Net Carbon Debt is equal to the Historical Carbon Debt (from fossil fuel burning since the start of the Industrial Revolution in circa 1750) minus the Carbon Credit (the residual carbon pollution from fossil fuel burning permitted between now and zero emissions in 2050). As outlined below and based on fossil fuel burning, Net Carbon Debt (Net Climate Debt) has been estimated for all Carbon Debtor countries and Net Carbon Credit (Net Climate Credit) has been estimated for all Carbon Creditor countries. This information is crucial for climate justice as the World faces a worsening climate crisis born of GHG profligacy and climate change inaction. The Historical Carbon Debt (aka Climate Debt) of the World has been estimated at 12 Gt CO2 (12 billion tonnes CO2) in 1751-1900 and 334 Gt CO2-e for 1901-2008, for a total of 346 Gt CO2 in the period 1751-2008 (see “Carbon dioxide in the atmosphereâ€). Most of this greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution has occurred in the last half century. In a 2008 letter to Australian PM Kevin Rudd, NASA’s Dr James Hansen provided a breakdown of global responsibility for fossil fuel-derived CO2 pollution between 1751 and 2006 that is summarized below as a percentage (%) of the Historical Climate Debt (1751-2006) of 346 Gt CO2. Ships/air (4%): 4% of 346 Gt CO2 = 13.84 Gt. This has been allocated proportionately to the other groups as shown below. India (2.5%) = (0.025 x 346 = 8.65) + (2.5 x 13.84/96 = 0.36) = 9.01 Gt CO2. Japan (3.9%) = 13.49 + 0.56 = 14.05 Gt CO2. UK (6.0%) = 20.76 + 0.87 = 21.63 Gt CO2. Germany (6.6%) = 22.84 + 0.95 = 23.79 Gt CO2. Russia (7.4%) = 25.60 + 1.07 = 26.67 Gt CO2. China (8.2%) = 28.37 + 1.18 = 29.55 Gt CO2. USA (27.5%) = 95.15 + 3.97 = 99.12 Gt CO2. Canada-Australia (3.1%) = 10.73 + 0.45 = 11.18 Gt CO2 -> Canada 5.59 Gt CO2 & Australia 5.59 Gt CO2. Rest of Europe (18.0%) (population 451.2 million) = 62.28 + 2.60 = 64.88 Gt CO2. Rest of World (12.8%) (population 3,197.1 million) = 44.29 + 1.85 = 46.14 Gt CO2. The Carbon Debtors are stealing from the poor Carbon Creditors that are increasingly threatened by the worsening climate crisis. Post-2010 Carbon Credits (aka Climate Credits) relate to the last amount of GHG pollution the World can sustain before zero emissions in 2050 if it is to avoid a disastrous 2 degree Centigrade temperature rise. In 2009 the WBGU which advises the German Government on climate change estimated that for a 75% chance of avoiding a disastrous 2C temperature rise (EU policy), the World must emit no more than 600 billion tones of CO2 between 2010 and zero emissions in 2050. From this information it was possible to use data for annual per capita GHG pollution (i.e. of CO2-e; see “List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions per capitaâ€) to calculate years left to zero emissions for every country in the world (see “Shocking analysis by country of years left to zero emissionsâ€). This analysis based on current per capita pollution of CO2-e (CO2-equivalent i.e. considering GHGs such as methane and nitrous oxide in addition to CO2) was used to estimate Carbon Debt (Climate Debt) in US dollars for most countries (see “Climate Debt, Climate Creditâ€). However a simpler and much more comprehensive analysis of Carbon Debt (Climate Debt) for all countries of the World is presented below that reports Carbon Debt in millions of tonnes of CO2 from fossil fuel burning alone (and ignores GHG pollution deriving from land use (agriculture and forestry), methane, nitrous oxide (N2O) and other GHGs). Net Carbon Debt (aka Net Climate Debt) and Net Carbon Credit (aka Net Climate Credit) can be estimated from the difference between Historical Carbon Debt and post-2010 Carbon Credits. Thus, by way of example, if one accepts that “all men are created equalâ€, the Carbon Credit for India (population 1,210.2 million out of a total global population of 6,983.2 million) is 600 billion tonnes CO2 x 1,210.2 million/6,983.2 million = 103.981 billion tones CO2. The Net Carbon Debt for India is therefore 9.010 billion tonnes CO2 (Historical Carbon Debt) – 103.981 billion tonnes CO2 (post-2010 Carbon Credit) = - 94.971 billion tonnes Net Carbon Debt or a Net Carbon Credit of + 94.971 billion tones CO2. Conversely, the Carbon Credit for the US (population 312.8 million out of a total global population of 6,983.2 million) is 600 billion tonnes CO2 x 312.8 million/6,983.2 million = 26.876 billion tonnes. The Net Carbon Debt for the US is therefore 99.120 billion tonnes CO2 (Historical Carbon Debt) – 26.876 billion tonnes CO2 (post-2010 Carbon Credit) = 72,244 billion tonnes CO2 Net Carbon Debt. For “Rest of Europe†countries the Net Carbon Debt is 64,880 million tonnes CO2 /451.2 million people = 143.79 million tonnes CO2/person (Historical Carbon Debt) - 600,000 million tonnes /6,983,2 persons = 85.92 tonnes per person (Carbon Credit) = 57.49 tonnes per person i.e. there is a positive Net Carbon Debt which is in magnitude 57.87 x100/85.92 = 67.4% of the 2010-2050 Carbon Credit. For “Rest of World “ countries the Net Carbon Debt is 46,140 million tonnes CO2/3,197.1 million persons = 14.43 million tonnes CO2/person (Historical Carbon Debt) – 85.92 tonnes per person (Climate Credit) = -71.49 tonnes per person i.e. there is a positive Net Carbon Credit which is in magnitude 71.49 x100/85.92 = 83.2% of the 2010-2050 Carbon Credit. Net Carbon Debt (millions of tonnes of CO2) of Climate Debtor countries (descending order). United States (72,244), Germany (16,765), United Kingdom (16,277), Russia (14,392), France (3,763), Australia (3,631), Japan (3,069), Italy (3,515), Spain (2,671), Ukraine (2,643), Canada (2,617), Poland (2,204), Romania (1,241), Netherlands (967), Belgium (627), Greece (624), Czech Republic (611), Portugal (611), Hungary (578), Belarus (548), Sweden (548), Austria (487), Switzerland (455), Bulgaria (426), Serbia (412), Denmark (323), Slovakia (315), Finland (313), Norway (289), Ireland (265), Croatia (248), Macedonia (241), Bosnia & Herzegovina (222), Moldova (206), Lithuania (186), Albania (164), Latvia (128), Macedonia (119), Slovenia (119), Estonia (78), Cyprus (46), Montenegro (36), Luxembourg (30), Malta (24), Iceland (18), Jersey (5.7), Andorra (4.9), Isle of Man (4.8), Guernsey (3.6), Greenland (3.3), Faroe Islands (2.8), Liechtenstein (2.1). Monaco (2.1), San Marino (1.9), Gibraltar (1.7), Saint Barthélemy (0.5), Saint Pierre et Miquelon (0.4), Falklands Islands (0.2), Vatican City (0.05). Net Carbon Credit (millions of tonnes of CO2) of Climate Creditor countries (ascending order). Tokelau (0.07), Niue (0.07), Saint Helena Ascension and Trista da Cunha (0.3), Montserrat (0.4), Tuvalu (0.7), Nauru (0.7), Cook Islands (0.8), Wallis & Futuna (1.0), Anguilla (1.1), Palau (1.5), British Virgin Islands (2.0), Saint Martin (2.7), Turks and Caicos Islands (3.0), Saint Kitts and Nevis (3.7), Northern Mariana Islands (3.9), Marshall Islands (3.9), Cayman Islands (3.9), American Samoa (4.0), Bermuda (4.5), Dominica (5.1), Antigua and Barbuda (6.4), Seychelles (6.5), Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (7.2), Kiribati (7.2), Aruba (7.3), Federated States of Micronesia (7.3), Tonga (7.5), United States Virgin Islands (7.6), Grenada (7.9), Curaçao (10), Guam (11), Saint Lucia (12), São Tomé and Principe (12), Samoa (13), Mayotte (15), French Guiana (16), Vanuatu (17), New Caledonia (18), French Polynesia (20), Barbados (20), Belize (22), Maldives (23), Bahamas (25), Martinique (28), Guadeloupe (29), Brunei (30), Cape Verde (35), Suriname (38), Western Sahara (39), Macau (40), Bhutan (51), Equatorial Guinea (51), Comoros (54), Guyana (56), Réunion (58), Fiji (62), Djibouti (65), Timor-Leste (76), Swaziland (86), Bahrain (88), Mauritius (92), Trinidad and Tobago (94), Guinea-Bissau (101), Gabon (110), Qatar (119), Gambia (127), Botswana (145), Lesotho (157), Namibia (166), Jamaica (193), Mongolia (196), Oman (198), Kuwait (201), Armenia (234), Mauritania (239), Uruguay (241), Panama (243), Liberia (249), Puerto Rico (266), Republic of the Congo (296), Occupied Palestinian Territories (298), Lebanon (304), Costa Rica (308), New Zealand (317), Georgia (319), Central African Republic (321), Turkmenistan (365), Singapore (371), Eritrea (387), Kyrgyzstan (389), Togo (411), Nicaragua (416), Sierra Leone (429), El Salvador (445), Jordan (447), Paraguay (453), Laos (454), Libya (459), Papua New Guinea (501), Hong Kong (508), Tajikistan (544), Israel (558), Honduras (587), United Arab Emirates (591), South Sudan (591), Burundi (613), Benin (651), Azerbaijan (651), Dominican Republic(670), Somalia (683), Haiti (721), Guinea (731), Bolivia (745), Tunisia (763), Rwanda (766), Cuba (804), Chad (806), Zimbabwe (912), Senegal (919), Zambia (933), Malawi (935), Cambodia (958), Ecuador (1,035), Mali (1,038), Guatemala (1,052), Niger (1,125), Burkina Faso (1,125), Kazakhstan (1,188), Chile (1,233), Madagascar (1,349), Cameroon (1,387), Angola (1,402), Sri Lanka (1,476), Syria (1,527), Côte d’Ivoire (1,530), Mozambique (1,648), Taiwan (1,660), Yemen, (1,704), North Korea (1,719), Ghana (1,732), Nepal (1,903), Saudi Arabia (1,940), Uzbekistan (2,002), Malaysia (2,026), Venezuela (2,108), Peru (2,130), Sudan (2,209), Iraq (2,295), Afghanistan (2,313), Morocco (2,317), Uganda (2,355), Algeria (2,595), Kenya (2,760), Argentina (2,868), Tanzania (3008), Colombia (3,310), Myanmar (3,456), South Korea 3,473), South Africa (3,616), Congo, Democratic Republic (formerly Zaire) (4,844), Thailand (4,970), Turkey (5,270), Iran (5,429), Egypt (5,811), Ethiopia (5,865), Vietnam (6,137), Philippines (6,721), Mexico (8,028), Bangladesh (10,173), Nigeria (11,617), Pakistan (12,737), Brazil (13,753), Indonesia (16,989), China (85,558), India (94,971). Some major observations arise from this data set 1. Some will argue that it is “unfair†to the major polluters of the European countries to saddle them with the Carbon Debt of previous generations. However these same countries have no problem with continuing to run up huge national debts, with demanding debt repayment by vulnerable countries (as in the current Eurozone crisis) or with crippling Third World countries with massive debt (for a damning account read John Perkins’ “Confessions of an Economic Hit Manâ€). Indeed Germany finally paid its last reparations for World War 1 (1914-1918) in 2010 and 96.5% of the 1751-2008 Historical Carbon Debt considered in this analysis was generated between 1901 and 2008. It should be also noted that this analysis is actually rather unfair to India, China , the “Rest of World†and indeed much of the “Rest of Europe†because it ignores the reality that most of these countries were variously subject in this period of 1751-2006 to colonial subjugation or crippling hegemony by the major polluters, namely the UK, Germany, the USA, Russia and Japan. 2. This analysis is only concerned with available data on Carbon Debt arising from the burning of fossil fuels and ignores Carbon Debt from greenhouse gas (GHG) production from deforestation and methanogenic livestock production. Using the data that methane (CH4) is 72 times the global warming potential (GWP) of carbon dioxide (CO2) on a 20 year time frame (as compared to 25 times worse on a 100 year time frame) World Bank analysts have re-assessed annual global GHG pollution as 50% bigger than hitherto thought with methanogenic livestock production contributing over 51% of the bigger figure (see Robert Goodland and Jeff Anfang. “Livestock and climate change. What if the key actors in climate change are … cows, pigs and chickens?â€, World Watch, November/December 2009). However this re-assessment in turn needs further re-assessment because Dr Drew Shindell and colleagues at NASA have shown that CH4 is actually 105 times worse than CO2 as a GHG on a 20 year time frame when aerosol impacts are taken into account (see Drew T. Shindell , Greg Faluvegi, Dorothy M. Koch , Gavin A. Schmidt , Nadine Unger and Susanne E. Bauer , “Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissions†and Shindell et al (2009), Fig.2). 3. The set of all the Carbon Debtor (Climate Debtor) countries include all the European countries and Japan. The set of all the Carbon Creditor (Climate Credit) countries includes all the non-European countries , excluding Japan, as well as the European colonies New Zealand and Israel (that could arguably be put in the “Rest of Europe†category). 4. One can convert the Carbon Debt or Carbon Credit from units of “million tonnes of CO2†simply by multiplying by whatever carbon price you desire in, say, US dollars. Thus a genuine Carbon Price of US$100 per tonne of CO2 would permit a transition from coal- and gas-burning for electric power. Using this value the Carbon Debt of the US would be 72, 244 million tonnes CO2 x $100/ tonne CO2 = $7,200, 244 million = $7.2 trillion. Likewise the Carbon Credit of China and India would be $8.6 trillion and $9.5 trillion, respectively. 5. The US is steadily increasing its current $15.3 trillion national debt and is devaluing this debt by printing money. Conversely, the US has a 72,244 million tonne CO2 ($7.2 trillion @ $100 per tonne CO2) Net Carbon Debt but is steadily increasing this debt at the rate of 6,946 million tonnes CO2-e per year (2008) i.e. the US Carbon Debt is increasing at about 10% per year. The US under Obama shows no indication of reducing its GHG pollution profligacy. Obama’s declining to approve the current Keystone XL pipeline proposal to carry oil from Canadian tar sands to Texas may only be a temporary reprieve to keep pro-environmentalists on side in a Presidential election year. According to leading US climate scientist Dr James Hansen, exploitation of the Canadian tar sands will mean “game over†for the Planet. 6. Australia is the worst annual per capita GHG polluter of the Carbon Debtor countries but shows no indication of changing its disproportionate GHG pollution. Australia’s Domestic plus exported GHG pollution was 1,077 million tonnes CO2-e in 2000 but under the Australian Labor Government’s dishonest “Carbon Tax-ETS Scheme†this is estimated to increase to 1,799 million tonnes by 2020 (a 1.7-fold increase) and to 4,490 million tonnes CO2-e by 2050 (a 4.2-fold increase). In vain top US, UK, German and Australian climate scientists and biologists demand that global GHG pollution must be rapidly reduced to zero emissions in about 2050 and that the atmospheric CO2 concentration must return to about 300 parts per million (ppm) from the current damaging 394 ppm (increasing at 2.4 ppm per year) (see “300,org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppmâ€). Australia’s Net Carbon Debt (3,631 million tonnes CO2) is currently increasing at about 1,415 million tonnes CO2-e per year i.e. at 39% per year. 7. “Annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution†in units of “tonnes CO2-equivalent per person per year†(2005-2008 data) is 0.9 (Bangladesh), 0.9 (Pakistan), 2.2 (India), less than 3 (many African and Island countries), 3.2 (the Developing World), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 16 (the Developed World), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; 54 if Australia’s huge Exported CO2 pollution is included, 64 being the 2010 figure). The major Climate Creditor countries are vastly lower in per capita GHG pollution than Australia (see “Climate Genocideâ€). Thus Australia’s current annual per capita of 64 tonnes CO2-e per person per year (with Exported GHG included) is 71 times that of Bangladesh. 8. The Carbon Debtors are stealing from the poor Carbon Creditors that are increasingly threatened by the worsening climate crisis. The Carbon Debtors (Climate Debtors) should be held to account through public advocacy, boycotts, sanctions, green tariffs, International Court of Justice (ICJ) litigations and International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutions applied against Climate Debtor countries by Climate Creditor countries, notably the numerous Island States and major mega-delta countries such as Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, China, Egypt, Nigeria, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The climate criminals and Carbon Debtors (Climate Debtors) must be brought to account before it is too late. The climate activist group Climate Justice Now! has stated that “Communities in the global south as well as low-income communities in the industrialised north have borne the toxic burden of this fossil fuel extraction, transportation and production. Now these communities are facing the worst impacts of climate change - from food shortages to the inundation of whole island nations†and demands “Huge financial transfers from north to south, based on the repayment of climate debts and subject to democratic control. The costs of adaptation and mitigation should be paid for by redirecting military budgets, innovative taxes and debt cancellationâ€. The present fossil fuel-based Carbon Debt analysis provides a quantitative basis for such transfers and should be used by Island States, mega-delta countries and other threatened Climate Creditor countries to force urgently needed climate change action.
  4. At the 2011 Durban Climate Conference the US, with the help of its climate criminal lackeys Australia and Canada, again succeeded in preventing requisite international climate change action. It was reported that Island States had again pleaded with other representatives to avert “climate genocide†but their pleas fell on deaf ears at Durban, as at Cancun, as at Copenhagen. However it is possible to quantitate the Climate Debt incurred by profligate high polluters such as the US Alliance countries and the Climate Credit allowing low polluters to advance economically on a path to eventual zero emissions in circa 2050. Quantitative, country by country analysis of the Climate Debt of Climate Debtor countries versus the Climate Credit of Climate Creditor countries may prove to be a valuable litigation weapon in the fight of Island States for their very physical survival. This approach may indeed help avert “climate genocideâ€. The contribution of each country to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) can be calculated as Historical Climate Debt (1751-2006 CO2 pollution) minus Climate Credit (its fair share of the World’s terminal CO2 pollution budget of 600 Gt CO2 between 2010 and zero emissions in 2050). With CO2 pollution valued at $100 per tonne CO2, mostly European countries and Japan have Net Climate Debts ranging up to $9.7 trillion (for the USA) whereas non-European countries typically have Net Climate Credits ranging up to $6.5 trillion for India. The World is increasingly threatened by man-made global warming due to pollution of the atmosphere with greenhouse gases (GHGs), principally carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), with this GHG pollution deriving mostly from fossil fuel burning and from land use (agriculture and deforestation). According to I.C. Prentice et al “Before the Industrial Era, circa 1750, the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration was 280 +/- 10 ppm for several thousand years. It has risen continuously since then, reaching 367 ppm in 1999†(see “The carbon cycle and atmospheric carbon dioxideâ€, coordinating lead author I.C. Prentice). The atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 394 ppm in 2010 with a rate of increase of 2.4 ppm per year (see “Recent Mauna Loa CO2â€, US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). Note that CO2-equivalent (CO2-e) is the greenhouse gas (GHG) amount taking all GHGs other than water (H2O) into account and expressing this in terms of CO2 equivalents, CO2 being largely responsible for the atmospheric GHG effect (excluding H2O) (see “2011 Climate Change Courseâ€: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/2011-climate-change-course ). Historical Climate Debt The Historical Climate Debt of the World has been estimated at 12 Gt CO2 (12 billion tonnes CO2) in 1751-1900 and 334 Gt CO2-e for 1901-2008, for a total of 346 Gt CO2 in the period 1751-2008 (see “Carbon dioxide in the atmosphereâ€). In a 2008 letter to Australia PM Kevin Rudd, NASA’s Dr James Hansen provided a breakdown of global responsibility for fossil fuel-derived CO2 pollution between 1751 and 2006 (see “Letter to PM Kevin Rudd by Dr James Hansenâ€, 2008) that is summarized below as a percentage (%) of the Historical Climate Debt (1751-2006) of 346 Gt CO2. Ships/air (4%) : 4% of 346 Gt CO2 = 13.84 Gt. This has been allocated proportionately to the other groups. Thus India (2.5%) = (0.025 x 346 = 8.65) + (2.5 x 13.84/96 = 0.36) = 9.01 Gt CO2. Japan (3.9%) = 13.49 + 0.56 = 14.05 Gt CO2. UK (6.0%) = 20.76 + 0.87 = 21.63 Gt CO2. Germany (6.6%) = 22.84 + 0.95 = 23.79 Gt CO2. Russia (7.4%) = 25.60 + 1.07 = 26.67 Gt CO2. China (8.2%) = 28.37 + 1.18 = 29.55 Gt CO2. USA (27.5%) = 95.15 + 3.97 = 99.12 Gt CO2. Canada-Australia (3.1%) = 10.73 + 0.45 = 11.18 Gt CO2 -> Canada 5.59 Gt CO2 & Australia 5.59 Gt CO2. Rest of Europe (18.0%) = 62.28 + 2.60 = 64.88 Gt CO2. Rest of World (12.8%) = 44.29 + 1.85 = 46.14 Gt CO2 The above compilation shows the Climate Debt for major polluters in the period 1750-2006. It should be noted that this is a big under-estimate of Historical Carbon Debt because it is based solely on fossil fuel-derived CO2 and ignores that due to other GHGs, cement manufacture and de-forestation. For countries in the “Rest of Europe†category, their Historical Climate Debt was calculated based on their proportion of the 2011 population (see “List of countries by population†(2011)). Thus according to the UN Population Division (see: http://esa.un.org/wpp/unpp/p2k0data.asp ) Europe had a population of 738.2 million in 2010 and accordingly the “Rest of Europe†has a population of 738.2 million – 62.3 million (UK) – 81.7 million (German) – 142.9 million (Russia) = 451.3 million. Thus, for example, Switzerland (part of “Rest of Europeâ€) has a population of 7.9 million and its Historical Climate Debt is 7.9 million x 64.88 Gt CO2 /451.3 million = 1.14 Gt CO2. For countries in the “Rest of World†category, their Historical Climate Debt was also calculated based on their proportion of the 2011 population (see “List of countries by population†(2011), Wikipedia). Thus according to the UN Population Division the World had a population of 6,980.3 million and accordingly the “Rest of World†population = 6,980.3 million - 62.3 million (UK) – 81.7 million (Germany) – 142.9 million (Russia) – 1,210.2 million (India) – 1,339.7 million (China) – 127.7 million (Japan) – 312.7 million (USA) – 34.5 million (Canada) – 22.8 million (Australia) – 451.3 (“Rest of Europe†) = 3,194.5 million. Thus, for example, Turkey (part of “Rest of World†) has a population of 73.7 million and so its Historical Climate Debt is 73.7 million x 46.14 Gt CO2/3,194.5 million = 1.06 Gt CO2. It should be noted that this analysis is rather unfair to India, China , the “Rest of World†and indeed much of the “Rest of Europe†because it ignores the reality that most of these countries were variously subject in this period of 1751-2006 to colonial subjugation or crippling hegemony by the major polluters, namely the UK, Germany, the USA, Russia and Japan (see “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950â€, “Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History†and William Blum’s “Rogue Stateâ€). Further, one can value this Historical Carbon debt by applying a Carbon Price and here we will use $100 per tonne CO2, roughly the price that could achieve a transition from dirty coal and gas burning to clean, renewable wind energy. Thus the Historical Climate Debt of the US can be expressed either as 99.12 Gt CO2 or as 99.12 Gt CO2 x $100 / t CO2 = $9,912 billion = $9.912 trillion. By way of comparison, the GDP of the US is currently $14.5 trillion. China has an Historical Climate Debt of 29.55 Gt CO2 or $2.955 trillion. Of course a Carbon Price of $100 per tonne CO2 is only based on what is required to implement wind power competitively in the current World Order. A more valid price would be that based on the value of a human life and the avoidable death associated with carbon burning. Thus at a "value of a statistical life" (VOSL) of $7.6 million per person ($73 billion pa for10,000 pa Australian carbon burning-related deaths) and $9 billion pa in fossil fuel subsidies, the minimum Carbon Price to cover carbon burning-derived deaths and carbon burning subsidies is $554 per tonne of carbon as compared to the recently Australia legislated Carbon Price of $23 per tonne CO2-e (see “Australian carbon burning-related deaths and carbon burning subsidies => minimum Carbon Price of A$554 per tonne carbonâ€). Historical Climate Debt can be expressed on a per capita basis simply by dividing the Historical Climate Debt for a country (e.g. see the data tabulated above ) by the present population of the country. For all “Rest of World†countries, the Per Capita Historical Carbon Debt (US$ per person) = 46.14 billion tonnes CO2 X $100 per tonne CO2/ 3,194.5 million persons = $1,444.4 per person. For all “Rest of Europe†countries, the Per Capita Historical Climate Debt (US$ per person) = 64.88 billion tonnes CO2 X $100 per tonne CO2/ 451.3 million persons = US$14,376.2 per person. Post-2010 Climate Credits In 2009 the WBGU which advises the German Government on climate change estimated that for a 75% chance of avoiding a disastrous 2C temperature rise (EU policy), the World must emit no more than 600 Gt CO2 between 2010 and zero emissions in 2050. From this information it was possible to use data for annual per capita GHG pollution (i.e. of CO2-e; see “List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions per capitaâ€) to calculate years left to zero emissions for every country in the world (see “Shocking analysis by country of years left to zero emissionsâ€). If we accept that “all men are created equal†then the annual per capita “terminal budget “ share is 600 Gt CO2/ (40 years x 7 billion people) = 2.14 t CO2 per person per year. Thus relative to mid-2010, Australia (population 22.8 million in 2011) at its current rates of GHG pollution had only 1.1 years left to zero emissions and thus by about August 2011 had used up its†fair share of this terminal global GHG pollution budget and is now stealing the entitlement (Climate Credits) of other countries i.e. it has approximately zero Carbon Credits. A more precise calculation of Australia’s Carbon Credits is 2.14 t CO2 per person per year x 22.8 million persons x 1.1 years = 53.7 Mt CO2 (million tonnes CO2) = 0.054 Gt CO2. Note that these estimates derive from consideration of CO2-e. While the Climate Credits of the US = 2.14 t CO2 per person per year x 312.7 million persons x 3.1 years = 2,074 Mt CO2 = 2.074 Gt CO2 = $207.4 billion , the Climate Credits of China = 2.14 t CO2 per person per year x 1,339.7 million persons x 18.5 years = 53,039 Mt CO2 = 53.04 Gt CO2 = $5,304 billion. . These Climate Credits can be expressed either as Gt CO2 or in US dollars by applying a Carbon Price of $100 per tonne CO2 e.g. the Climate Credits of Australia, the US and China are $5.4 billion, $207 billion and $5.3 trillion, respectively. Per capita Climate Credits each country can simply be obtained by dividing Carbon Credits by the population. Per capita Climate Credits (US$ per person) = years to zero emissions x 2.14 tonnes CO2 per person per year X $100 per tonne CO2. Net Climate Debt and Net Climate Credit Net Climate Debt equals Historical Climate Debt minus Climate Credits. Thus the Net Climate Debt of the US is + $9.912 trillion - $0.207 trillion = $9.705 trillion. In contrast China has a Net Climate Debt of $2.955 trillion - $5.304 billion = - $2.349 trillion i.e. China has a Net Climate Credit of + $2.349 trillion. Listed below is the Per Capita Net Climate Debt (US$ per person) for all the Climate Debtor countries (those with a Net Climate Debt) and the Net Climate Credit for all the Climate Creditor countries (those with a Net Climate Credit). One notes that just as the debtor countries of Europe are expected to meet their financial obligations, so the Climate Debtor countries must also be brought to account for their profligacy. The data is expressed country by country as Per Capita Historical Climate Debt minus Per Capita Climate Credit = Net Per Capita Climate Debt (US$ person). To obtain the total Net Climate Debt or Net Climate Credit for a country simply multiply the per capita value (in US$ per person) by the population (see “List of countries by populationâ€). Net Per Capita Climate Debt (US$ per person) of Climate Debtor countries United Kingdom (33,307), United States (31,035), Germany (27,856), Australia (23,900 or 24,265 if including the effect of its huge GHG Exports on its Climate Credits), Russia (17,529), Canada (15,560), Luxembourg (13,649), Estonia (13,520), Ireland (13, 456), Czech Republic (13,263), Netherlands (13,242), Belgium (13,306), Finland (13,199), Denmark (13,135), Norway (13,028), Greece (12,942), Cyprus (12,878), Slovenia (12,857), Austria (12,835), Iceland (12,835), Ukraine (12,793), Poland (12,771), Belarus (12,579), Slovakia (12,707), Spain (12,707), Italy (12,707), France (12,600), Sweden (12,322), Switzerland (12,193), Bulgaria (12.300), Serbia & Montenegro (12,300), Hungary (12,300), Portugal (12,236), Malta (11,851), Croatia (11,765), Macedonia (11,723), Romania (11,573), Lithuania (11,509), Bosnia & Herzegovina (10,931), Latvia (11,780), Japan (10,017), Moldova (8,213), Albania (7,357). Belize (1,273), Qatar (1,166), Guyana (1,148), Malaysia (1,038), United Arab Emirates (1,016), Kuwait (1,228), Papua New Guinea (909), Brunei (845), Antigua & Barbuda (845), Zambia (824), Bahrain (802), Trinidad & Tobago (738), Panama (653), New Zealand (653), Botswana (567), Saudi Arabia (503), Venezuela (460), Indonesia (417), Equatorial Guinea (374), Turkmenistan (353 ), Singapore (353), Liberia (332), Nicaragua (289), Oman (246), Palau (246), Brazil (246), Uruguay (225), Mongolia (135), Israel (135), Nauru (118), South Korea (53), Kazakhstan (32), Libya (11), Myanmar (11). Net Per Capita Climate Credit (US$ per person) of Climate Creditor countries Taiwan (11), Cambodia (75), Peru (118), Paraguay (118), South Africa (182), Argentina (225), Central African Republic (268), Suriname (353), Gabon (396), Ecuador (439), Bolivia (460), Cameroon (589), Iran (589), Côte d’Ivoire (610), Seychelles (631), Guatemala (631), Congo, Democratic Republic (formerly Zaire) (631), Uzbekistan (674), Azerbaijan (824), Angola (867), Bahamas (888), Benin (931), Zimbabwe (931), Laos (974), Mexico (974), Nepal (995), Colombia (995), Namibia (995), Chile (995), Congo, Republic (1,124), Madagascar (1,124), Jamaica (1,166), Barbados (1,209), Mauritania (1,316), Turkey (1,316), Costa Rica (1,423), Lebanon (1,466), North Korea (1,530), Thailand (1,573), Jordan (1,701), China (1,753), Honduras (1,830), Sudan (1,915), Algeria (2,236), Iraq (2,236), Sierra Leone (2,236), Syria (2,408), Tunisia (2,729), Dominican Republic (2,964), St Kitts & Nevis (3,221), Nigeria (3,221), Fiji (3,221), Guinea (3,371), Mauritius (3,371), Cuba (3,542), Togo (3,542), Vanuatu (3,692), Philippines (3,692), Malawi (3,692), Mali (3,884), Chad (3,884), Sri Lanka (4,077). Uganda (4,269), Dominica (4,269), St Lucia (4,269), Egypt (4,483), Niue (4,483), Ghana (4,483), Grenada (4,719), El Salvador (4,976), Guinea-Bissau (4,976), Tanzania (4,976), Djibouti (4,976), Pakistan (5,254), Samoa (5,254), Tonga (5,254), Morocco (5,575), Senegal (5,575), Georgia (5,575), Armenia (5,896), St Vincent & Grenadines (6,281), Kenya (6,281), Maldives (6,666), Kyrgyzstan (6,666), Burkina Faso (6,666), India (7,837), Cook Islands (7,137), Bhutan (7,629), Yemen (8,207), Tajikistan (8,207), Mozambique (8,207), Rwanda (8,207), Burundi (8,207), Lesotho (8,849), Swaziland (8,849), Eritrea (9,577), Haiti (9,577), Solomon Islands (12,573), Vietnam (12,573), Cape Verde (12,573), Niger (12,573), Ethiopia (12,573), São Tomé and Príncipe (13,985), Afghanistan (15,697), The Gambia (15,697), Bangladesh (15,697), Comoros (20,598), Kiribati (24,278). Summary Using readily available data this analysis attempts to estimate Net Per Capita Climate Debt or Net Per Capita Climate Credit for all countries of the World. Note that it is domestic GHG pollution that is being considered and thus the grievous culpability of fossil fuel exporters like Australia and Saudi Arabia is not evident from this data set, although all the major fossil fuel exporters end up in the Climate Debtor list. The assumptions and methodology are clear, this enabling more precise revisions. The total amounts of Net Climate Debt and Net Climate Credit can be readily determined from the above per capita data simply by multiplying by the population. Thus, by way of key examples, the Net Climate Debt is $9.7 trillion (for the USA), $2.3 trillion (Germany), $2.1 trillion (UK), $0.5 trillion (Australia) and $0.5 trillion (Canada) whereas the Net Carbon Credit is $6.5 trillion (India), $2.3 trillion (China), $2.2 trillion (Bangladesh) and $0.9 trillion (Pakistan). After the disastrous inaction of the Durban Climate Conference and the derisory First World offer of a $100 billion climate fund for poor nations, it is apparent that the greedy climate criminals (notably the US, Australia and Canada) and the other Climate Debtors will not repay their debt nor indeed stop polluting the atmosphere. One hopes that the Climate Creditor countries will insist on full reparations for a polluted planet. Hopefully this analysis will be useful in International Court of Justice (ICJ) litigations and International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutions against Climate Debtor countries by Climate Creditor countries. I would urge everybody, and in particular citizens of threatened megadelta and Island States, to inform their leaders about this Climate Debt and Climate Credit analysis. The First World EU governments in the current EU financial crisis are insisting on financial debt repayment and fiscal responsibility by debtor countries. Climate Creditor countries should likewise insist on repayment of Climate Debt and a rapid global move to cessation of greenhouse gas pollution. The Climate Debtors are stealing from the poor Climate Creditors and should be held to account by the Climate Creditors at the ICJ and the ICC.
  5. It has been reported by the UK New Statesman that the US will not air the "On Thin Ice" seventh episode of David Attenborough's "Frozen Planet" BBC TV series about wildlife in the Arctic and Antarctica. The censored out final "On Thin Ice" seventh episode deals with the impact of man-made climate change, a matter controversial to a substantial body of anti-science, climate change denialist Americans. Samira Shackle in the New Statesman: “Seven episodes of the multi-million-pound nature documentary series will be aired in Britain. However, the series has been sold to 30 world TV networks as a package of only six episodes. These networks then have the option of buying the seventh "companion" episode -- which explores the effect man is having on the natural world -- as well as behind the scenes footage. The six-episode series has been sold to 30 broadcasters, ten of which have declined to use the climate change episode, "On Thin Ice", including the US. In America, the series is being aired by the Discovery channel, which insists that the final episode has been dropped because of a "scheduling issue".†This is typical cowardly behavior by the BBC which has an appalling record of lying by omission and commission, most notoriously about the 12 million Muslim war-related deaths (about half of them children) in the 1990-2011 US Alliance War on Muslims (for details and documentation not reported by the holocaust-ignoring BBC see "Muslim Holocaust, Muslim Genocide"), noting that holocaust ignoring is far, far worse than repugnant holocaust denial because at least the latter admits the possibility of public discussion). This Mainstream media lying by omission has dire consequences - thus it has just been announced that 2,500 child-killing US Marines are to be stationed in Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia where US lackey Apartheid Australia is remorselessly continuing a racist process of Aboriginal Ethnocide and Aboriginal Genocide. What I suppose might well be covered in the "On Thin Ice" seventh episode of David Attenborough's "Frozen Planet" series could be related to the 4 October 2011 press release from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSDIC) which includes a map showing the approximate halving of Arctic summer sea ice extent in recent decades and states: "This September, sea ice covering the Arctic Ocean fell to the second-lowest extent in the satellite record, which began in 1979. Satellite data analyzed by NSIDC scientists showed that the sea ice cover narrowly avoided a new record low, while other data sources showed that ice extent matched or even fell below the record-setting low extent in 2007... NSIDC Director Mark Serreze said, "It looks like the spring ice cover is so thin now that large areas melt out in summer, even without persistent extreme weather patterns... The big summer ice loss this year is setting us up for another big melt year in 2012. We may be looking at an Arctic Ocean essentially free of summer ice only a few decades from now". The US, a major annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) polluter, has 4.4% of the world's population, consumes 25% of its resources and is hell-bent on remorseless GHG pollution that is worsening a Climate Genocide that is set to kill 10 billion non-Europeans this century. The Murdoch Media Empire is pretty bad when it comes to perversion of the truth, especially in relation to irresponsible and anti-social man-made climate change denialism (and hence "Boycott Murdoch Media") but other media are heavily involved also. Thus in Australia, where Murdoch Media have 70% of the city newspaper readership, I understand that it is the major national TV channel Channel 9 (non-Murdoch) that has purchased "Frozen Planet" - but apparently only the first 6 episodes (e.g. see its promotion here). This is yet another instance of the operation of what has been called Murdochracy (Big Money buys truth and votes) and Lobbyocracy (Big Money buys politicians and policy) in the Western democracies. In the West the 1% have substituted Murdochracy and Lobbyocracy for Democracy at the expense of the 99% and of rational risk management that is crucial for societal safety. The WBGU that advises the German Government on climate change in 2009 estimated that for a 75% chance of avoiding a disastrous 2C temperature rise the world can emit no more than 600 billion tonnes of CO2 between 2010 and zero emissions in 2050. The climate criminal US is set to use up its "fair share" of this terminal global GHG pollution budget in about 2013. However it is estimated that Australia, an even worse per capita Greenhouse gas (GHG) polluter than the US, had already used up its “fair share†by mid-2011 and is now stealing the entitlement of wretchedly poor countries such as drought-devastated Somalia and inundation-threatened Bangladesh (see "Shocking analysis by country of years left to zero emissions"). The climate criminality of the US and its lackey Australia are revealed by the following 2005-2008 data on “annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution†in units of “tonnes CO2-equivalent per person per yearâ€: 0.9 (Bangladesh), 0.9 (Pakistan), 2.2 (India), less than 3 (many African and Island countries), 3.2 (the Developing World), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 16 (the Developed World), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; or 54 if Australia’s huge Exported CO2 pollution is included) (see “Climate Genocideâ€). What can decent, pro-Planet people do in the face of media censorship in the face of a worsening climate emergency? Decent people can (a) inform everyone they can about the threat and the Mainstream media censorship and ( urge sanctions and boycotts against all people, politicians, countries and corporations complicit in the worsening climate genocide.
  6. Australia and indeed the World are increasingly threatened by massive investment in coal seam gas (CSG). CSG expansion has drawn vehement opposition in Australia from urban environmentalists and also from farmers opposed to despoiling of prime agricultural land and potential pollution of aquifer resources. Now the Australian National University (ANU) has disinvested in coal seam gas (CSG) development after student opposition to such investment (see “ANU removes itself from coal seam gas operationsâ€). Key quotes from report: “The Australian National University will sell its shares in Metgasco, a company involved in coal seam gas extraction in Northern NSW, following student opposition to the investment… The ANU currently holds a 1% share in Metgasco, worth around $1 million, making it the 12th largest shareholder. The ANU’s total investment portfolio is valued at over $1 billion. Students from the Collective say they discovered the investment in Metgasco’s annual report. They were spurred on by contact from several people in areas affected by Metgasco operations, who urged a push for divestment. The students launched their campaign by installing a ‘gas rig’ made out of milk crates in Union Court on campus and starting a petition.†I made the following science-informed comment on Woroni: “Great news! The students are correct - gas is dirty and can be dirtier than coal greenhouse gas (GHG)-wise. Most of natural gas is methane (CH4) which leaks (at 3.3% US average or up to 7.9% from fracking) and is 105 times worse than carbon dioxide (CO2) as a greenhouse gas (GHG) on a 20 year time frame and with aerosol impacts included. In Victoria [a major Australian state] burning gas for power is half as dirty GHG-wise as burning coal but at 3.3% systemic leakage it is 1.2 times as dirty as Hazelwood (Victoria's dirtiest coal-fired power plant) and at 7.9% leakage it is 2.1 times as dirty as Hazelwood (see this)â€. In 2009 the WBGU (that advises the German Government on climate change) estimated that for a 75% chance of avoiding a disastrous 2 degree Centigrade temperature rise (would you board a plane if there were a 25% chance of it crashing?) the World must emit no more than 600 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) between 2010 and zero emissions in 2050. Australia as a world leading annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) polluter has ALREADY used up its "fair share" of this terminal GHG pollution budget and is now stealing the entitlement of other countries, including impoverished, climate change-threatened countries such as Somalia, Bangladesh and Kiribati (see “Shocking analysis by country of years left to zero emissionsâ€). Australia should be stopping gas and coal extraction and not opening up new mines for more carbon pollution. Congratulations to the student activists! I worked at ANU as a Queen Elizabeth II Research Fellow 40 years ago and so am doubly pleased with the ANU action. Disinvestment represents a significant means of cutting greenhouse gas pollution and anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Pro-environment students, activists and investors around the world should follow the example of the ANU students and ANU management.
  7. In the Western Murdochracies (Big Money buys truth and votes) and Lobbyocracies (Big Money buys politicians and policy) pro-Planet and pro-Humanity voters have little choice but to vote 1 Green or vote 1 Socialist as set out below using the example of climate criminal Australia, a nation that is making a disproportionately huge contribution to a worsening climate genocide that is set to kill 10 billion non-Europeans this century through unaddressed, man-made climate change. Australia is a leading country for annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution, coal exports and liquid natural gas (LNG) exports. Thus “annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution†in units of “tonnes CO2-equivalent per person per year†(2005-2008 data) is 0.9 (Bangladesh), 0.9 (Pakistan), 2.2 (India), less than 3 (many African and Island countries), 3.2 (the Developing World), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 16 (the Developed World), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; or 54 if Australia’s huge exported CO2 pollution is included). Indeed the data for 2010 indicate that Australia’s annual domestic plus exported GHG pollution is 64 tonnes per person per year, 71 times greater than the per capita GHG pollution of Pakistan. In 2009 the German Advisory Council on Climate Change (WBGU) determined that for a 75% chance of avoiding a 2 degree C temperature rise, the World must pollute less than 600 Gt CO2 between 2010 and essentially zero emissions in 2050. Unfortunately Australia (through disproportionately huge annual fossil fuel burning and exports) has already used up its share of this terminal GHG pollution budget and is now stealing the entitlement of other countries including acutely global warming-threatened countries such as Somalia and Bangladesh. Australia’s disproportionately huge annual per capita GHG pollution weans that Australia is disproportionately contributing to a avoidable deraths in the Developing World due to a worsening climate genocide. Thus both Dr James Lovelock FRS (Gaia hypothesis) and Professor Kevin Anderson ( Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, UK) have recently estimated that only about 0.5 billion people will survive this century due to unaddressed, man-made global warming. Noting that the world population is expected to reach 9.5 billion by 2050 (UN Population Division) , these estimates translate to a climate genocide involving deaths of 10 billion people this century, this including roughly twice the present population of particular mainly non-European groups, specifically 6 billion under-5 year old infants, 3 billion Muslims in a terminal Muslim Holocaust, 2 billion Indians, 1.3 billion non-Arab Africans, 0.5 billion Bengalis, 0.3 billion Pakistanis and 0.3 billion Bangladeshis (see “Climate Genocideâ€). However in look-the-other-way Australia it is business as usual (BAU). The 2 major political groupings, Liberal-National Party Coalition Opposition (the Libs) and the Labor Government (the Labs) have essentially the same climate change inaction policies of "5% off 2000 greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution by 2020" coupled with unlimited expansion of coal and gas exports that will mean that Australia's domestic plus exported GHG pollution will, relative to 2000, roughly double by 2020 and quadruple by 2050 (see this). The Greens are pro-environment but only have about 14% of the vote and are detested by the major parties and the mainstream media, particularly the climate change denialist Murdoch newspapers that have 70% of newspaper readership in Australia. On 4 October 2011 The Age On-line National Times (owned by the Fairfax media organization) published a critique of the Greens by John Matthews (strategist at “Loop Branding†and writer for “ArtKritiqueâ€) entitled “â€Greens should come out of the forest†(see: Greens should come out of the forest ; see also this). Key quotes from this nonsensical article: “You know there's a problem with a brand when your competitors use it as shorthand for all that's bad. So when Liberal frontbenchers spit out the phrase "Green-Labor government" as an expletive you can bet they're pretty sure the "G" word carries negative connotations that will have their supporters grinding their teeth in rage. Right now the Green brand is a problem… If we look across the spectrum of politics and consider what makes the Greens different today we see it's not their environmental politics. Belief in climate change is mainstream to all bar a few shock jocks, the odd snarling, cynical, right-wing bully and Tony Abbott. You can believe in the need to take action on global warming and not vote Green. Which sparks the question — so why would we?†The Age kindly published my rebuttal of this absurd article: “Green" is universally identified with a pro-environment stance, and the defence of our common, vital, natural environment and its irreplaceable ecosystems against destructive greed and private profit. However a related generality is Green defence of human social environments (human ecosystems) against amoral greed. Accordingly, apart from the marginalized but ethically very sound Socialists, the Greens are the only significant political group realistically and honestly defending the sustainability and richness of both non-human ecosystems (the environment) and human ecosystems (human societies). John Matthews' assertion that "You can believe in the need to take action on global warming and not vote Green" is manifestly incorrect. Both the Liberal-National Party Coalition Opposition (the Libs) and the Labor Government (the Labs) have essentially the same climate change inaction policies of "5% off 2000 greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution by 2020" coupled with unlimited expansion of coal and gas exports that will mean that Australia's domestic plus exported GHG pollution will, relative to 2000, roughly double by 2020 and quadruple by 2050. The Greens pragmatically support, as a carbon-pricing "first step", Labor's dishonest and counterproductive Carbon Tax (Treasury modelling says it will actually INCREASE Australia's domestic GHG pollution) - ergo vote 1 Green and put Labor last.†I could have added that before the 2010 elections the middle-of-the-road National Tertiary Education Union (NTEU) conducted a survey of the policies of the major political parties on 40 issues in 7 major areas. Overall the Greens scored 100%, the ALP 53% and the LNP 23% in the NTEU survey. All anti-war, pro-environment, anti-racism, pro-Planet and pro-Humanity folk will vote 1 Green (indeed if you Google the phrase “vote 1 Green†you will get 543,000 results with articles containing this opinion of Dr Gideon Polya ranking items 1-5 on page 1). The environmental policies of the Greens are a quantum jump above those of the do-nothing, BAU Lib-Labs and the social policies of the Greens are in agreement with the views of about half the Australian population. The Socialists have similar pro-environment and pro-Humanity polices but are more rigorous and less pragmatic than the typically middle class Greens. Sensible, pro-environment, pro-Humanity Australians – and indeed like people worldwide - have little choice but to vote 1 Green or to vote 1 Socialist.
  8. Humanity is acutely threatened by man-made global warming but is also substantially disempowered by irresponsible corporate polluters and by Mainstream media and politicians. However 24 September 2011 is “Moving Planet Day†on which hundreds of thousands of people around the world will be demanding effective action against man-made climate change. A key sponsor is 350.org which wants atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to be no more than 350 parts per million (ppm). 300.org, which demands that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) be returned ASAP to 300 parts per million (ppm) from the current 394 ppm (increasing at 2.4 ppm per year), also endorses “Moving Planet Dayâ€. According to key sponsor 350.org: “On September 24, more than 150 countries are expected to take part in a global day events called “Moving Planet†dedicated to the goal of solving the climate crisis by ending the world’s dependence on fossil-fuel energy. From Pacific islands to European capitols, hundreds of thousands will join creative rallies to show that people around the world are ready for clean energy and climate solutions†(see 350.org press release, “Over 150 countries join “Moving Planet Day†to push for clean energy solutionsâ€. A great bit of news for this 24 September “Moving Planet Day†of climate change action backed by 350.org, 300.org and others around the World: Germany’s upper house of parliament, the Bundesrat, has rejected a proposal to start storing the greenhouse gas (GHG) carbon dioxide (CO2) underground in a bid to reduce emissions (see “Germany rejects carbon dioxide storage plansâ€, The Local, 23 September 2011. A great decision by Germany to prohibit as yet commercially unproven Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). The solution to greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is to stop GENERATING GHGs, mainly carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and man-made GHGs such as hydrofluoro hydrocarbons (HFCs), nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). This can be achieved by 100% renewable energy ASAP coupled with re-afforestation and biochar production coupled with cessation of population increase, fossil fuel burning, deforestation and methanogenic livestock production (for an up to date, well referenced climate change course summary Google "climate change course summary"). The need for REAL action on GHG pollution is acute, In 2009 the German Advisory Council on Climate Change (WBGU; Wissenshaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen) determined that for a 75% chance of avoiding a 2 degree C temperature rise (EU policy), the World must pollute less than a 600 Gt CO2 "global GHG pollution budget" between 2010 and essentially zero emissions in 2050. Analysis of this country by country reveals that at current rates of GHG pollution Germany has merely 5.9 years to cease all GHG pollution (i.e. no industry, transport, livestock etc) whereas climate criminal Apartheid Australia, a world leader in annual per capita GHG pollution and fossil fuel exports has already used up its "fair share" of this terminal GHG pollution budget and is now stealing the entitlement of all other countries (e.g. Somalia and Bangladesh) (for details "Shocking analysis by country"). The World is running out of time to tackle man-made climate change and dishonest, ineffective approaches such as the CCS, ETS and "coal to gas transition" (gas is dirty and can be dirtier than coal GHG-wise) will simply delay requisite climate change action. Supported by 350.org (back to 350 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere ASAP) and 300.org (back to 300 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere ASAP), on September 24, more than 150 countries are expected to take part in a global day events called “Moving Planet†dedicated to the goal of solving the climate crisis by ending the world’s dependence on fossil-fuel energy. Both Dr James Lovelock FRS (Gaia hypothesis) and Professor Kevin Anderson (Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, UK) have recently estimated that only about 0.5 billion people will survive this century due to unaddressed, man-made global warming. Noting that the world population is expected to reach 9.5 billion by 2050 (UN Population Division) , these estimates translate to a climate genocide involving deaths of 10 billion people this century, this including roughly twice the present population of particular mainly non-European groups, specifically 6 billion under-5 year old infants, 3 billion Muslims in a terminal Muslim Holocaust, 2 billion Indians, 1.3 billion non-Arab Africans, 0.5 billion Bengalis, 0.3 billion Pakistanis and 0.3 billion Bangladeshis (see “Climate genocideâ€). What can decent people do? Decent folk who care for their children, their grandchildren and intergenerational equity must (a) inform everyone they can about the worsening climate emergency and ( urge and apply sanctions against all those people, politicians, corporations and countries complicit in the worsening climate emergency. We mostly live in the prevalent pseudo-democratic Murdochracies (Big Money buys truth and votes) and Lobbyocracies (Big Money buys politicians and policy). However decent folk can be empowered by a simple ABC protocol that has been highly successful in all kinds of other movements and which people can apply individually and collectively to tackling climate change: (A) Accountability – hold corporations, countries, products, politicians and polluters accountable for increasing greenhouse gas pollution; ( Badge - wear a pro-Planet badge e.g. bear witness with a “300 ppm CO2†badge to the need to reduce atmospheric CO2 to the level it had not exceeded in the 800,000 years prior to the Industrial Revolution; and © Credo – transmit a simple, fundamental core statement e.g. “Return atmospheric CO2 to 300 ppm for a safe planet for all peoples and all speciesâ€.
  9. The atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is now 394 parts per million (ppm) but top climate scientists and biologists say that it must be urgently reduced to about 300 ppm for a safe and sustainable planet for all peoples and all species (for details simply Google 300.org or 300 ppm CO2). However the World is now undergoing a coal to gas transition, a gas rush and a gas boom, with gas derived from conventional on-shore and off-shore sources and also from shale deposits and shallower coal seams that are being subject to hydraulic fracturing or “frackingâ€. Because methane (85% of natural gas) leaks (3.3% US average, up to 7.9% from fracking) and is 105 times worse as a greenhouse gas (GHG) on a 20 year time frame with aerosol impacts included, a coal to gas transition represents a huge threat to a World that must get to zero greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution by about 2050 if it is to avoid a disastrous 2 degree Centigrade temperature rise. Calculation of the greenhouse gas (GHG) impact of leaked natural gas Natural gas is about 85% methane (CH4) and burning 1 tonne CH4 yields 2.75 tonnes carbon dioxide (CO2). Thus gas is not “clean†as asserted by pro-gas lobbyists and politicians and is in fact a dirty source of energy. However if there is industrial leakage of CH4 (estimated to be 3.3% in the US from US EPA data) [1], then one must also consider the greenhouse gas (GHG) effect of the leaked methane which is 105 times worse than CO2 as a greenhouse gas on a 20 year time scale with aerosol impacts included [2-5]. These considerations render false the position of pro-gas lobbyists who plead for a coal to gas transition, falsely arguing that gas burning is “cleaner†than coal burning. Thus in Victoria, Australia, gas-fired power stations (0.60 – 0.90 tonnes CO2-e/MWh, average 0.75 tonnes CO2-e/MWh) are roughly twice as efficient in producing energy as brown coal-burning power stations (1.21-1.53 tonnes CO2-e/MWh) according to a report by Green Energy Markets commissioned by Environment Victoria (EV) [6]. However, at a systemic leakage of 0.94% the GHG pollution due to gas-fired power would roughly double to about 1.5 tonnes CO2-e/MWh, equivalent to that of Hazelwood, the dirtiest coal-fired power station in Victoria. If the systemic gas leakage rate is 3.3% (US average) then the combustion of gas for power would 2.3 times as dirty GHG-wise as coal-fired Hazelwood. If the systemic gas leakage rate is 7.9% (the upper estimate with shale formation-derived gas) [7]) then a coal to gas transition would yield power sector GHG pollution roughly 4.7 times as dirty as from coal-fired Hazelwood. Because methane leaks and is so much worse than carbon dioxide (CO2) as a greenhouse gas (GHG), Professor Robert Howarth, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York has concluded that “The large GHG footprint of shale gas undercuts the logic of its use as a bridging fuel over coming decades, if the goal is to reduce global warming. We do not intend that our study be used to justify the continued use of either oil or coal, but rather to demonstrate that substituting shale gas for these other fossil fuels may not have the desired effect of mitigating climate warmingâ€. [7]. Gas GHG impact ignored by Mainstream media (MSM) in Western Lobbyocracies US President Barack Obama has outrageously and falsely lumped planet-threatening natural gas under "clean energy"; permitted a massive expansion of offshore gas and oil drilling; and supported the Alaska Gas Pipeline, massive expansion of on-shore gas drilling and an oil-to-gas shift for transportation. One would have hoped that the 2010 Gulf oil and gas disaster tragically devastating the coastal environments of the US Gulf States would have prompted sensible, informed public discussion about the immense threat that natural gas (mostly methane) poses to Humanity and the Biosphere. At least one news report in 2010 sounded the alarm about methane from the Gulf oil spill disaster (variously known as the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the BP oil spill, the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, the BP oil disaster, or the Macondo blowout): “According to John Kessler, a Texas A&M University oceanographer who is studying the impact of methane from the BP oil spill, the crude oil emanating from the seafloor [up to 100,000 barrels oil equivalent per day = 0.013 million tonnes oil equivalent] contains about 40% methane compared to about 5% found in typical crude oil deposits. The risk is great, as marine life will be suffocated as a result of the increased methane levels. The Gulf of Mexico will eventually have "dead zones" to deal with where oxygen is so depleted that nothing lives. This is significant and can forever alter the water/life composition. "This is the most vigorous methane eruption in modern human history," Kessler said.†[8]. The amount of methane released over the 86 days between the initial blow-out and capping the well-head (20 April – 15 July 2010) can be estimated at 0.4 x (0.013 million tonnes methane /day) x 86 days = 0.447 million tonnes CH4 = 0.447 Mt CH4 x 105 x (44/16) (Mt CO2-e / Mt CH4) = 129 Mt CO2-e. Fortunately, according to the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS): “John Kessler of Texas A&M University and colleagues surveyed the Gulf waters during the leak as well as after the wellhead was sealed, and their results indicate that a vigorous bloom of bacteria degraded virtually all of the methane released form the well within 120 days of the initial blowout.†[9]. Australian novelist Peter Carey recently observed that the really important news is the news that is not reported. Ditto, "The holes in history are what makes sense of the thing" (Aarons and Loftus, "The Secret War Against the Jews", p12). This is well exampled by President Barack Obama avoiding mention of natural gas in his recent speech on the Gulf oil disaster from the Oval Office – completely missing from Obama’s Gulf oil-and-gas disaster speech was one key word: gas. Read through his speech and you will find that he used the following words in descending order of occurrence: oil (24 times), energy (14), drilling/drill (8), clean energy (6), environmental (4), God/He (4), Al Qaeda (1), recession (1), gas (0). [10]. Similarly, a search of the entire ABC site for “Robert Howarth†yielded one (1) result relating to the Cornell professor (and that due to me in a reader comment thread), noting that the ABC is the Australian equivalent of the BBC). Searches of The Australian newspaper (Australian national flagship of the Murdoch media empire) and of The Age ( the Melbourne quality newspaper of the Fairfax media empire and arguably Australia’s most progressive Mainstream medium) reveal zero (0) and one (1) report, respectively of the findings of Professor Robert Howarth (The Age report being a letter from me that it kindly published). Shale deposit and coal seam fracking, coal seam gas (GSG) and gas-based GHG pollution in Australia Australia is a world leader in annual per capita greenhouse gas pollution, coal exports and liquid natural gas (LNG) exports. Australia is also part of the global gas rush, gas boom and fracking-based GasLand scenario (see the movie GasLand about the impact of fracking in the US). However the Liberal National Party-National Party Coalition opposition and the Labor Governments (collectively known as the Lib-Labs) have identical overall climate policies of “5% off 2000 Domestic GHG pollution†coupled with expanding coal and liquid natural gas (LNG) exports. The Libs gave a “direct Action “policy (too ;little too late) whereas Labor has a disastrously counterproductive Carbon Tax-ETS plan that yields massive increases in Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution in 2020 and 2050 over that in 2000. Thus the following estimates of Domestic and Exported GHG pollution in Mt CO2-e and based on Treasury, ABARE and US EIA data (noting that coal and gas exports are predicted to increase annually by 2.6% and 9%, respectively): 2000: 496 (Domestic) + 504.9 (coal exports) + 16.8 (LNG exports) = 1017.8. 2009: 600 (Domestic) + 784 (coal exports) + 31 (LNG exports) = 1,415 (total). 2020: 621 (Domestic) + 1,039 (black coal exports) + 80 (LNG exports) + 59 (brown coal exports) = 1,799. 2050: 527 (Domestic) + 2902 (coal exports) + 1,061 (LNG exports) = 4,409. However these estimates do not take into account an approximate doubling of electricity sector GHG pollution due to a Labor Government-adumbrated coal to gas transition (and indeed an approximately 5 fold increase if fracked shale gas is used). Hydraulic fracking of shale seams is becoming controversial throughout the world, including Australia (see the movie “GasLandâ€). Thus the hydraulic fracturing (“fracking) of shale deposits with water containing numerous chemical additives has been banned in France and England and New York has imposed a moratorium on the practice. In Australia there are bipartisan concerns about fracking procedures violating prime agricultural land and contaminating and depleting aquifers e.g. the Great Artesian Basin, a huge source of water in this dry continent. The main arguments against “fracking†of shale deposits and shallower coal seams for gas are destruction of prime agricultural land in a hungry world; pollution and depletion of underground aquifers; and that gas is dirty, generates CO2 on combustion and due to leakage can be much dirtier GHG-wise than coal or oil (if there is a coal to “fracked gas†conversion. there will a circa 5-fold increase in electricity sector GHG pollution in Australia). However a fundamental objection to “fracking†and a coal to gas conversion is that the World is rapidly running out of time to deal with the worsening climate emergency. Thus in 2009 the German Advisory Council on Climate Change (WBGU, Wissenshaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen) issued a report entitled “Solving the climate dilemma: the budget approach†in which it estimated that for a 75% chance of avoiding a disastrous 2 degree Centigrade temperature rise the World must emit no more than 600 billion tones of CO2 between 2010 and zero emissions in 2050. In mid-2011 Australia has already exceeded its “fair share†of this terminal global GHG pollution budget and any Australian GHG pollution now is at the expense of the entitlement of all other countries. [11]. Summary Natural gas represents a huge threat to the World if, as adumbrated by corporations and governments, there is a coal to gas transition. Ignored by MPs, mainstream media and MPs in the Western Lobbyocracies is the reality that because methane (85% of natural gas) leaks (3.3% US average, up to 7.9% from fracking) and is 105 times worse as a greenhouse gas (GHG) on a 20 year time frame with aerosol impacts included, a coal to gas transition represents a huge threat to a World that must get to zero greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution by about 2050 if it is to avoid a disastrous 2 degree Centigrade temperature rise. Hydraulic fracturing for shale deposit gas destroys agricultural land in a hungry world, pollutes and depletes aquifers and increases the systemic GHG pollution associated with heat and power generation. All countries and intranational jurisdictions must follow the examples of France, England and New York State and ban shale deposit and coal seam fracking. The World is running out of time to seriously tackle the worsening climate emergency. The atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is now 394 parts per million (ppm) but top climate scientists and biologists say that it must be urgently reduced to about 300 ppm for a safe and sustainable planet for all peoples and all species (see 300.org:) [12] but the World is remorselessly heading in the opposite direction . Stop the coal to gas transition and stop fracking the Planet. For references, see page two: References [1]. David Lewis, "EPA confirms natural gas leakage rates", The Energy Collective, 7 December 2010. [2]. Drew T. Shindell , Greg Faluvegi, Dorothy M. Koch , Gavin A. Schmidt , Nadine Unger and Susanne E. Bauer , “Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissionsâ€, Science 30 October 2009: Vol. 326 no. 5953 pp. 716-718. [3]. Shindell et al (2009), Fig.2: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/326/5953/716.figures-only . [4]. Katharine Sanderson, “Aerosols make methane more potentâ€, Nature News, 29 October 2009. [5]. Dr Drew Shindell, quoted in Mark Henderson, “Methane's impact on global warming far higher than previously thoughtâ€, The Times, 30 October 2009. [6]. Green Energy Markets, “Fast-tracking Victoria's clean energy future to replace Hazelwoodâ€, 2010. [7]. Robert W. Howarth, Renee Santoro and Anthony Ingraffea, “Methane and the greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas from shale formationsâ€, Climatic Change, 2011. [8]. Todd Schoenberger, “Methane gas concerns arose from Gulf oil spillâ€, Taipan’s Tipping Point Alert, 18 June 2010. [9]. AAAS, “Science: Gulf bacteria quickly digested spilled methane, research saysâ€, 6 January 2011. [10]. Remarks by the President to the Nation on the BP Oil Spill, Oval Office, White House,15 June 2010: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-nation-bp-oil-spill . [11]. Gideon Polya, “Shocking analysis by country of years left to zero emissionsâ€, Green Blog, 1 August 2011. [12]. “300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppmâ€, 300.org.
  10. Top climate scientists around the World are saying that to have a high probability of avoiding a catastrophic 2 degree Centigrade temperature rise the World must stop GHG pollution by about 2050. However in Australia, a world leader in annual par capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution and in fossil fuel exports, there is an unspoken agreement between the major parties (the Liberal-National Party Coalition Opposition and the Labor Party Government, aka the Lib-Labs) that Australia will keep burning and exporting fossil fuels until the World makes it stop. At huge expense to Australian taxpayers the pro-coal, pro-gas, anti-environment Australian Labor Government is posting out to all Australian householders a 20 page booklet called “What a carbon price means for you. The pathway to a clean energy future†(.pdf) and which dishonestly claims that the Gillard Labor Government is “tackling climate changeâ€. Australian taxpayers should be enraged that they are having to pay for being lied to by omission and commission and that their children are being lied to in a process of massive, nation-wide intellectual child abuse. Background Before proceeding to systematically demolish the lies of this document, it is important to get the basic facts straight. Australia is among the world leaders in annual per capita greenhouse gas pollution, coal exports and liquid natural gas (LNG) exports. Thus “annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution†in units of “tonnes CO2-equivalent per person per year†(2005-2008 data) is 0.9 (Bangladesh), 0.9 (Pakistan), 2.2 (India), less than 3 (many African and Island countries), 3.2 (the Developing World), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 16 (the Developed World), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; or 54 if Australia’s huge Exported CO2 pollution is included). Top UK climate scientists Dr James Lovelock FRS (Gaia hypothesis) and Professor Kevin Anderson ( Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, UK) have recently estimated that only about 0.5 billion people will survive this century due to unaddressed, man-made global warming . Noting that the world population is expected to reach 9.5 billion by 2050, these estimates translate to a climate genocide involving deaths of about 10 billion people this century, this including 6 billion under-5 year old infants, 3 billion Muslims in a terminal Muslim Holocaust, 2 billion Indians, 1.3 billion non-Arab Africans, 0.5 billion Bengalis, 0.3 billion Pakistanis and 0.3 billion Bangladeshis. Australia is disproportionately complicit in a worsening climate genocide (“Climate Genocideâ€). Australia is world number 1 in coal exports and according to the Australian Government “Australia is a major exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with considerable potential for further development based on its abundant resources of natural gas. Australia is the third largest LNG exporter in the Asia-Pacific region and the fourth largest LNG exporter in the world, exporting 17.9 million tonnes in 2009-10 with a value of around $7.8 billion†(see Australian Government, Department of Energy , Resources and Tourism, “Australian liquefied natural gasâ€, 2010). Politically Australia is dominated (18 July 2011 primary vote in parenthesis) by the Liberal-National Party Coalition Opposition (51%), the Australian Labor Party Government (26%) and the Greens (11%) (see “Latest Nielsen Pollâ€, Nielson, 18 July 2011). The Gillard Labor Government (elected in November 20101) is a Minority Government that rules with the support of 1 Greens MPs and 3 Independents and the next elections are due in 2013. The Coalition greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution policy is essentially the SAME as that of the Labor Government, specifically “5% off 2000 Domestic GHG pollution by 2020†coupled with unconstrained, unlimited, burgeoning, world-leading coal and liquid natural gas (LNG) Exports. The Coalition has a Direct Action Plan (energy efficiency, incentives for cleaner energy, re-afforestation, and biochar) but must be criticized for doing too little. However it can potentially do a lot more. In contrast, .the Labor Government has proposed a Carbon Tax-ETS-Ignore Agriculture (CTETSIA) plan involving an indirect, selectively market-based plan to achieve a decrease in GHG pollution. Labor ‘s CTETSIA plan entrenches climate change inaction while dishonestly pretending to do otherwise. Thus Labor’s CTETSIA plan will: promote a disastrous coal to gas transition (that will double power sector-derived GHG pollution because methane leaks at about 3.3% and is 105 times worse than CO2 as a GHG on a 20 year timeframe with aerosol impacts included; see “Planned coal to gas transition will DOUBLE Australian electric power greenhouse gas (GHG) pollutionâ€, Bellaciao, 15 May 2011); scupper science-demanded 100% renewable energy by 2020; institute an empirically ineffective, disastrously counterproductive and utterly fraudulent Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) (Source); and ignore agriculture (yet World Bank experts have recently determined that GHG pollution is 50% bigger than hitherto thought and that livestock alone contribute over 51% 9f the bigger figure; see Robert Goodland and Jeff Anfang. “Livestock and climate change. What if the key actors in climate change are … cows, pigs and chickens?â€, World Watch, November/December 2009). The big functional difference between the Libs and the Labs is that while the Libs can potentially ramp up their Direct Action plan for “5% off 2000 by 2020†, Treasury analysis released by Treasurer Wayne Swan and Climate Minister Greg Combet several weeks ago (“Strong Growth, Low Pollution. Modelling a Carbon Priceâ€) reveals that Labor will certainly NOT achieve “5% off 2000 by 2020†- in 2020 Australia’s annual Domestic GHG pollution will be 679 Mt CO2-e (Business As Usual) or 621 Mt CO2-e (with a Carbon Price) and can only attain the promised “5% off 2000 level by 2020†value of 466 Mt CO2-e by the artifice of purchasing 155 Mt CO2-e of Internationally-sourced abatement credits. Treasury, ABARE and US EIA data show that Australia will almost DOUBLE its annual Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution in 2020 relative to that in 2000 (1,012 Mt CO2-e pa) to 1,803 Mt CO2-e pa (with a Carbon Price) or 1,861 Mt CO2-e pa (without a Carbon Price) (see “Analysis: Australian Labor Government Carbon Price-ETS scheme fails & entrenches climate change inactionâ€, Bellaciao). It gets worse. In 2009 the German Advisory Council on Climate Change (WBGU) determined that for a 75% chance of avoiding a 2 degree C temperature rise, the World must pollute less than 600 Gt CO2 between 2010 and essentially zero emissions in 2050. Unfortunately Australia (through disproportionately huge annual fossil fuel burning and exports) and Belize (through disproportionately huge annual deforestation) have already used up their “share†of this terminal greenhouse gas (GHG) budget - and are now stealing the entitlement of other countries (see “World has 600 Gt CO2 left to pollute before 2050: Australia & Belize have ALREADY used their “fair shareâ€â€, Bellaciao). According to the Climate Commission’s report “The Critical Decadeâ€, launched by PM Julia Gillard a month or so ago (Source), for a 75% chance of avoiding a catastrophic 2 degree C temperature rise (EU and Australian policy) the World must emit no more than 1 trillion tonnes of CO2 (1,000 Gt CO2) between 2010 and zero emissions in about 2050. One can readily calculate that Australia’s “fair share†of this terminal carbon pollution budget is 2,750 Mt CO2. In 2009 Australia’s Domestic plus Exported GHG in Mt CO2-e totaled 600 (Domestic) + 31 (LNG) + 784 (coal) = 1,415 Mt CO2-e per year. Accordingly , at thjs rate of GHG pollution Australia will have 2,750 t CO2 / 1,425 t CO2-e per year = 1.9 years left before ti uses up its “share†of the terminal global GHG pollution “budget†i.e. Australia must get to zero GHG pollution by mid-2012 or roughly when pro-coal, pro-gas Labor introduces its fraudulent dishonest and ineffective Carbon Tax-ETS scheme (Source). However in 2009 the German Advisory Council on Climate Change (WBGU) determined that for a 75% chance of avoiding a 2 degree C temperature rise, the World must pollute less than 600 Gt CO2 between 2010 and essentially zero emissions in 2050. Unfortunately Australia (through disproportionately huge annual fossil fuel burning and exports) and Belize (through disproportionately huge annual deforestation) have by August 2011 ALREADY used up their “share†of this terminal greenhouse gas (GHG) budget (see “World has 600 Gt CO2 left to pollute before 2050: Australia & Belize have ALREADY used their “fair shareâ€â€œ, Bellaciao). For a detailed analysis of the worsening Climate Emergency sent to the Australian Government, its advisers and to Australian mainstream media see “Look-the-other-way, climate criminal Australia ignores 25 Elephant in the Room climate change realities“, Bellaciao, 6 July 2011). Yet look-the-other-way, climate criminal Australia simply does not want to know – it wants to exploit and indeed expand exploitation of its huge coal and natural gas reserves until the World makes it stop. The document With this background, one can now analyse the lies of commission and commission of the Australian Government’s 20-page document “What a carbon price means for youâ€. 1. “Clean energy future†(pages 1, 2, 3, 5, 11, 19, 20 and as a footnote or heading on all odd-numbered pages) - in reality the CTETSIA plan will not even deliver a clean-er energy future. Thus Australia’s Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution was 1,012 Mt CO2-e (2000 under the Coalition ), and 1,415 Mt CO2-e (in 2009 under Labor) but is predicted to be 1,803 Mt CO2-e in 2020 under the CTETSIA Plan according to Treasury modelling. More means less? Dirty means clean? Dirtier means cleaner? 2. “The carbon price package will ensure that by the end of the decade Australia will cut 160 million tonnes of pollution from the atmosphere each year†(pages 3, 6) – in reality, according to Treasury modeling, in 2020 Australia’s annual Domestic GHG pollution will be 679 Mt CO2-e (Business As Usual) or 621 Mt CO2-e (with a Carbon Price) and can only attain the promised “5% off 2000 level by 2020†value of 466 Mt CO2-e by the artifice of purchasing 155 Mt CO2-e of Internationally-sourced abatement credits. This assertion of “160 million tones of pollution†saved each year is scientifically illiterate, false and a profound deception. 3. “Putting a price on carbon is a big change for Australia – but it will help protect the economy, environment and future generations†(p3) – but not according to the Treasury , ABARE and the UDS EIA data which say that under this Plan Australia in 2020 will DOUBLE its Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution relative to that in 2000. More is less? Dirtier is cleaner? 4. “Why is Australia cutting its carbon pollution?†(p4) – it is not as explained above. 5. “We produce significantly more pollution per person than India and China†(p5) – this is dishonest understatement. Australia’s annual per capita GHG pollution in 2009 was 1,415 Mt CO2-e CO2-e/22 million people = 64.3 tonnes CO2-e per person per year i.e. 64.3/2.2 = 29.2 times more than India (2.2) and 64.3/5.5 = 11.7 more than China (5.5). The genocidal, racist first PM of Australia Edmund Barton stated in 1901 that “The doctrine of the equality of man was never intended to apply to the equality of an Englishman and the Chinamanâ€. In 1947 the racist former Labor leader Arthur Calwell notoriously stated that “Two Wongs don’t make a Whiteâ€. However politically correct racist (PC racist) Labor today says that 11 Chinese aren’t equivalent to 1 White Australian when it comes to per capita GHG pollution of the one common atmosphere of the world. 6. “Australia’s carbon pollution is high because …†(p5) – the explanation completely ignores Australia’s huge exported GHG pollution that (in Mt CO2-e) was 522/1,102 = 47.4% of the total in 2000, and 815/1,415 = 57.6% of the total in 2009 and is predicted to be 1,182/1,803 = 65.6% of the total in 2020. An immense lying by omission. 7. “The Australian Government has a comprehensive plan to build a clean energy future ..†(p5) – but in detailing the plan no mention is made of Australia’s huge and expanding Exported GHG pollution (see point #6 above) or the $12 billion in annual subsidies for fossil fuel burning in Australia (see ACF, “Australia spends $11 billion more on encouraging pollution than on cleaning it upâ€, 1 March 2011). If the Gillard Labor were serious about “tackling climate change†it would immediately cancel fossil fuel export licences and cease subsidies for fossil fuel – but of course it won’t because, as the Australian Treasury analysis reveals, it has no intention of “tackling climate changeâ€. 8. “The Government has set a further target of cutting pollution to 80 percent below 2000 levels by 2050†(p5) – yet this assertion ignores the enormous growth in Exported GHG pollution from coal exports (growing at 2.6% yearly) and LNG exports (growing at 9% yearly) (see ABARE estimations: Australian energy, National and state projections to 2029-30, ABARE Research Report 06.26). Further, the Australian Government has lied about cutting GHG pollution by 2020 – in fact Australia’s Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution will DOUBLE in 2020 relative to that in 2000. Quadruple by 2040? 9. “Experts say the Government’s plan to move to a clean energy future will: - significantly cut pollution†(p6) – but not according to the data from the Treasury , ABARE and the UDS EIA experts which say that under this Plan Australia in 2020 will DOUBLE its Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution relative to that in 2000. More is less? Dirtier is cleaner? 10. “A carbon price is the cheapest and most effective way to cut pollution. Economic experts around the world recognize that putting a price on carbon is the most environmentally effective and cheapest way to cut pollution†(p6) - but not according to the data from the Treasury , ABARE and the US EIA experts which say that under this Plan Australia in 2020 will DOUBLE its Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution relative to that in 2000. More is less? Dirtier is cleaner? Further, top climate scientists and economists have slammed the ETS as empirically ineffective, disastrously counterproductive and utterly fraudulent Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) (Source). 11. “The initial price for these permits will be $23 per tonne†(p7) – per tonne carbon one supposes was meant in this scientifically illiterate document. However what will be the concrete outcome of this carbon price in terms of GHG pollution? As outlined above, according to the Treasury modeling the Plan will simply DOUBLE Australia’s Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution (a bad outcome). According to the Labor Government the carbon price will promote a shift from coal burning to gas burning for electricity. However in Australia a coal to gas transition will double power sector-derived GHG pollution because methane leaks at about 3.3% and is 105 times worse than CO2 as a GHG on a 20 year timeframe with aerosol impacts included (a bad outcome). According to Beyond Zero Emissions a carbon price of about $70 per tonne carbon is required to promote wind energy and circa $200 per tonne carbon is required to promote uptake of concentrated solar thermal energy i.e. the $23 per tonne carbon will scupper 100% renewable energy by 2020 and promote a counterproductive coal to gas transition (a bad outcome). 12. “The economy will continue to grow as Australia embraces a clean energy future†(p7) – however the carbon pollution intensity of the economy will also grow with a shift from coal to the even more GHG-polluting gas (see point #11 above) and as GHG pollution from fossil fuel exports increase as a percentage of total GHG pollution from 47.4% (2000) and 57.6% (2009) to 65.6% (2020) (see point #6 above). 13. “Treasury modelling estimates that under a carbon price average incomes grow strongly†(p7) – but so too does Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution from 1,102 Mt CO2-e (2000) and 1,415 Mt CO2-e (2009) to 1,803 Mt CO2-e (2020). 14. “The carbon price will be paid by around 500 of Australia’s largest polluters†(p8) – this is an admission of profound dishonesty and offensive discrimination by the anti-science Australian Labor Government which proposes selectively taxing particular industries while ignoring Australia’s huge GHG pollution from deforestation, livestock production and fossil fuel exports. 15. “Millions of households will be better off†(p9) and “Tax cuts for millions of people†(p11) – half of “What a carbon price means for you†is devoted to shameless and dishonest appeal to the pecuniary greed of ordinary Australians. However what the document does not reveal is that the government will be giving with one hand and taking with the other. The revenue is expected to be $8 -$9 billion pa to 2014-2015 and fuel tax savings when implemented will save $0.6 billion pa. Household assistance will cost $4-$5 billion pa and industry assistance will cost about $3 billion pa. However a further $1 billion pa is required from general taxation-derived revenue to pay for the package. Out of this about $2 billion will go to fund renewable energy (for a detailed analysis see “Australia’s outrageously deficient carbon tax entrenches climate change inactionâ€, Green Blog, 12 July 2011).The document ignores $12 billion per year Government subsidies for fossil fuel burning that will largely remain untouched and ignores the huge cost to ordinary Australians (especially the young) from climate change inaction entrenched by the Labor Governments plan. 16. “People with essential equipment needs [will be helped] †(p15) – this ignores the horrendous human cost of carbon burning in Australia. How many Australians die each year from the effects of pollutants from vehicles, coal burning for electricity and other carbon burning? Answer: about 2,200, 4,600 and 2,800, respectively. At a "value of a statistical life" (VOSL) of $7.6 million per person ($73 billion pa for Australian carbon burning-related deaths) and $9 billion pa in fossil fuel subsidies, the minimum Carbon Price to cover carbon burning-derived deaths and carbon burning subsidies is $554 per tonne of carbon as compared to the best political offer yet of $20 per tonne of carbon (see “Australian carbon-burning –related deaths and carbon burning subsidies => minimum carbon price of $544 per tonne carbonâ€, Yarra Valley Climate Action Group). 17. Completely missing from this profoundly flawed and dishonest document is any mention of: population (set to double in 20 years in the State of Victoria according to the Victorian State Labor Government’s 2010 White Paper); gas ( yet a coal to gas transition favoured by the Labor Government will effectively DOUBLE electricity sector GHG pollution); fossil fuel exports ( the GHG pollution from fossil fuel exports is currently over 58% of total GHG pollution); existing reverse carbon taxes ($12 billion per annum in subsidies for fossil fuel burning i.e. taxes on taxpayers on behalf of polluters); Australian deaths from fossil fuel and carbon burning (an estimated about 10,000 such deaths per annum); worsening climate genocide (10 billion people to die this century due to unaddressed , man-made climate change with Australia disproportionately complicit); and how Australia has ALREADY used up its “fair share†of the terminal 600 Gt CO2 global GHG pollution budget between 2010 and zero emissions in 2050. Conclusions This is a profoundly dishonest, counterproductive and damaging proposal that fails to seriously tackle man-made climate change and indeed entrenches climate change inaction in disproportionately polluting, climate criminal Australia. Labor’s Carbon Tax-ETS-Ignore Agriculture (CTETSIA) plan entrenches climate change inaction while dishonestly pretending to do otherwise. Thus Labor’s CTETSIA plan will: promote a disastrous coal to gas transition (that will double power sector-derived GHG pollution because methane leaks at about 3.3% and is 105 times worse than CO2 as a GHG on a 20 year timeframe with aerosol impacts included); scupper science-demanded 100% renewable energy by 2020; institute an empirically ineffective, disastrously counterproductive and utterly fraudulent Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS); and ignore agriculture (yet World Bank experts have recently determined that GHG pollution is 50% bigger than hitherto thought and that livestock production alone contributes over 51% of the bigger figure). The Coalition greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution policy is essentially the SAME as that of the Labor Government, specifically “5% off 2000 Domestic GHG pollution by 2020†coupled with unconstrained, unlimited, burgeoning, world-leading coal and liquid natural gas (LNG) Exports. In contrast to the Labor Government, the Liberal Party-National Party Coalition Opposition has a Direct Action Plan that involves Government savings-funded action involving re-afforestation, biochar and lower emissions technology and costing about $1 billion pa to achieve the same derisory “5% of 2000 GHG by 2020†goal of the Labor Government . The Coalition proposal has the benefits that it does not damage Australian industry and does not entrench climate change inaction (the Coalition scheme can be readily ramped up if needed – and of course, massive ramping up is needed). The Australian Labor Government’s 20 page booklet called “What a carbon price means for you. The pathway to a clean energy future†dishonestly claims that the Gillard Labor Government is “tackling climate change†whereas the opposite is patently true Treasury analysis of the Labor CTETSIA plan reveals that the pro-oil, pro-coal, pro-gas, pro-war, anti-environment and anti-science Australian Labor Government has no intention of ‘â€tackling climate change†while dishonestly pretending otherwise. The taxpayer-funded document is being sent to all households in Australia but has a major lie of omission or commission on nearly every page. Australian taxpayers should be enraged over their having to pay for being lied to by omission and commission and over their children being lied to in a process of massive, nation-wide, taxpayer-funded intellectual child abuse. While the pro-war, pro-coal, pro-gas, pro-oil, anti-environment, anti-science, neocon Australian Lib-Labs (Liberal –National Party Coalition Opposition and Labor Party Government) are committed to fossil fuel burning and fossil fuel exports, the rest of the world must act promptly to stop this climate criminality by Sanctions, Boycotts, Green Tariffs, Sporting Boycotts (including Olympic and cricket and football World Cup exclusions), International Court of Justice litigations and International Criminal Court prosecutions. The World must stop the Australian climate criminals who are threatening both Australia and the World.
  11. We all know that we have to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution and eventually reach zero emissions. Indeed top climate scientists and biologists are telling us that reaching zero emissions is not enough – we then have to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration from the current 394 parts per million (ppm) to 350 ppm (according to 350.org) and thence to 300 ppm (according to the latest science-informed 300.org). Because of extraordinary Mainstream media censorship in Lobbyocracy Australia, few Australians realize that Australia has already exceeded its “fair share†of permissible global GHG pollution before science-demanded zero emissions in 2050. "Australia is committed to a greedy and inhumane course of climate exceptionalism, climate racism and climate injustice." In 2009 the German Advisory Council on Climate Change (WBGU) determined that for a 75% chance of avoiding a 2 degree C temperature rise, the World must pollute less than 600 Gt CO2 between 2010 and essentially zero emissions in 2050. Unfortunately Australia (through disproportionately huge annual fossil fuel burning and exports) and Belize (through disproportionately huge annual deforestation) have already used up their “share†of this terminal greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. The analysis below will tell you how many years your country has left before it exceeds its “fair share†of atmospheric GHG pollution. The 2009 Report of the German Advisory Council on Climate Change (WBGU, Wissenshaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen) was entitled “Solving the climate dilemma: the budget approach†and crucially stated: “The budget of CO2 emissions still available worldwide could be derived from the 2 degree C guard rail. By the middle of the 21st century a maximum of approximately 750 Gt CO2 (billion metric tons) may be released into the Earth’s atmosphere if the guard rail is to be adhered to with a probability of 67%. If we raise the probability to 75%, the cumulative emissions within this period would even have to remain below 600 Gt CO2. In any case, only a small amount of CO2 may be emitted worldwide after 2050. Thus, the era of an economy driven by fossil fuels will definitely have to come to an end within the first half of this century†(see WBGU, “Solving the climate dilemma: the budget approachâ€). The consequences of this declaration of less than 600 Gt CO2 in emissions for a 75% chance of avoiding 2 degree C temperature rise are profound. Thus, would you board a plane if it had a 25% chance of crashing? Further, the average world population in the period 2010 and 2050 will be 8.321 billion (see UN Population Division, 2010 Revision). Accordingly the per capita share of this terminal CO2 pollution budget is less than 600 billion tonnes CO2/8.321 people = less than 72.1 tonnes CO2 per person. Using data for the annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) (including land use change) for every country in the world in 2000 (see “List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions per capitaâ€, Wikipedia) one can determine how many years left at current rates of GHG pollution (in units of CO2-e or CO2-equivalent i.e. taking other GHGs into account) before a given country uses up its “shareâ€. Thus for Australia 72.1 tonnes CO2-e per person / 25.9 tonnes CO2- per person per year in 2000 = 2.8 years left, based on the 2000 data. Note that this analysis does not take into account historical pollution of the atmosphere. In 2009 Australia’s population was 22.0 million, Australia 's GHG pollution was 600 Mt CO2-e (CO2 equivalent i.e. taking into account other greenhouse gases such as methane, CH4, and nitrous oxide, N2O). 600 Mt per year/ 22.0 million people = 27.3 t CO2-e per person per year and at that rate of GHG pollution Australia would use up its 2010-2050 “share†in 72.1 t CO2-e per person/ 27.3 t CO2-e per person per year = 2.6 years. However in 2009 Australia's Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution (in Mt CO2-e) was 600 (Domestic) + 784 (coal exports) + 31 (LNG exports) = 1,415 Mt CO2-e, this giving Australia an annual per capita Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution in 2009 of 1,415 Mt CO2-e per year/ 22.0 million people = 64.3 tonnes CO2-e per person per year, this being 64.3/0.9 = 71.4 times greater than the annual per capita of Bangladesh (0.9 tonnes CO2-e per person per year). Based on its 2009 Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution rate, Australia will take 72.1 Mt CO2-e per person/ 64.3 t CO2-e per person per year = 1.1 years in the period 2010-2050 to use up its “fair share†of the terminal 600 Gt CO2-e carbon pollution budget i.e. Australia has ALREADY used up its “share†of the terminal greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution budget. Of course there is no way that Australia will meet its “all men are created equal†global obligations and cease polluting after having already in July 2011 achieved its “fair share†of the terminal 600 Gt CO2 global GHG pollution “budgetâ€. Australia is fundamentally committed to coal and gas use and exports. Thus about 92% of Australia 's electricity derives from fossil fuel combustion, Australia is the world's biggest coal exporter and Australia is a major liquid natural gas (LNG) exporter. The only major change adumbrated by the Gillard Labor Government is a coal to gas transition for electric power generation, this ignoring the reality that this will mean a doubling of greenhouse gas generation from the electricity sector because methane (CH4) is 85% of natural gas, leaks at about 3.3% and is 105 times worse than CO2 as a greenhouse gas on a 20 year timeframe and taking aerosol impacts into account. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) has projected that Australia's black coal exports will increase at an average rate of 2.6% per year over the next 20 years and that liquid natural gas (LNG) exports will increase at 9% per year over the same period (see “Invest in Australiaâ€). Further, it is estimated that Australian exports of dried brown coal will reach 20 Mt by 2020, this corresponding to about 59 Mt CO2-e after combustion. Accordingly, by 2020 and based on Liberal-National Party Coalition Opposition and Labor Government (aka Lib-Lab) promises of “5% off Domestic GHG pollution by 2020†and ABARE projections (see ABARE, “Australian energy: national and state projections to 2029-30â€), Australian Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution will be 621 Mt CO2-e (Domestic) (Australian Government, Treasury, “Strong Growth, Low Pollution. Modelling a Carbon Priceâ€, 2011) + 1.326 x 784 =1,039 Mt CO2-e (coal exports) + 2.580 x 31 = 80 Mt CO2-e (LNG exports) + 59 Mt CO2-e (brown coal exports) = 1,799 Mt CO2-e i.e. 127% of that in 2009 (see “Analysis: Australian Labor Government Carbon Price-ETS scheme fails & entrenches climate change inactionâ€, Bellaciao, 16 July 2010). Thus Australian policy flies in the face of science and “all men are created equal†which show that Australia has ALREADY used up it share of the 2010-2050 terminal GHG pollution budget. Instead Australia officially projects to INCREASE its annual pollution by 2020 by about 27% over that in 2009. How does Australia 's refusal to DECREASE its disproportionate GHG pollution compare with the conduct of other countries? Set out below is the time (at 2000 pollution rates) for every country in the World to use up its “fair share†of the World’s 600 Gt CO2 terminal GHG pollution budget. Years to the required “fair shares†total cessation of GHG pollution at current rates of pollution = 72.1 tonnes CO2-e per person/ (tonnes CO2-e per person per year). The annual per capita GHG pollution for each country in 2000 with the land use contribution included (tonnes CO2-e per person per year) was used (the available data for Uruguay was the 2005 per capita data without the land use contribution included). It should be noted that fossil fuel use, livestock production and deforestation variously contribute to annual per capita GHG pollution. Of course if you can access more up-to-date data (e.g. the example of Australia) and then you can use it to determine an updated time for zero emissions. Note that this analysis does not take into account historical industrial pollution of the atmosphere (73% due to European countries) (see 2008 Letter of Dr James Hansen, NASA GISS, to PM Kevin Rudd of Australia). Countries that must cease GHG pollution within 5 years. Belize (0.8 years), Qatar (1.3), Guyana (1.4), Malaysia (1.9), United Arab Emirates (2.0), Kuwait (2.4), Papua New Guinea (2.5), Brunei (2.8), Australia (2.8; 1.1 if including its huge GHG Exports), Antigua & Barbuda (2.8), Zambia (2.9), Canada (3.0), Bahrain (3.0), United States (3.1), Trinidad & Tobago (3.3), Luxembourg (3.4), Panama (3.7), New Zealand (3.7), Estonia (4.0), Botswana (4.1), Ireland (4.3), Saudi Arabia (4.4), Venezuela (4.6), Indonesia (4.8), Equatorial Guinea (5.0), Belgium (5.0). Countries that must cease GHG pollution within 5-10 years. Turkmenistan (5.1 years ), Singapore (5.1), Czech Republic (5.2), Liberia (5.2), Netherlands (5.3), Russia (5.3), Nicaragua (5.4), Finland (5.5), Oman (5.6), Palau (5.6), Brazil (5.6), Uruguay (5.7), Denmark (5.8). Germany (5.9), Mongolia (6.1), Israel (6.1), Nauru (6.2), Norway (6.3), South Korea (6.5), Kazakhstan (6.6), United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (6.6), Libya (6.7), Greece (6.7), Japan (6.7), Myanmar (6.7), Taiwan (6.8), Cyprus (7.0), Slovenia (7.1), Cambodia (7.1), Austria (7.2), Iceland (7.2), Peru (7.3), Paraguay (7.3), Ukraine (7.4), Poland (7.5), South Africa (7.6), Argentina (7.8), Slovakia (7.8), Spain (7.8), Italy (7.8), Central African Republic (8.0), France (8.3), Suriname (8.4), Belarus (8.4), Gabon (8.6), Ecuador (8.8), Bolivia (8.9), Cameroon (9.5), Iran (9.5), Côte d'Ivoire (9.6), Sweden (9.6), Seychelles (9.7), Guatemala (9.7), Bulgaria (9.7), Serbia & Montenegro (9.7), Hungary (9.7), Congo, Democratic Republic (formerly Zaire) (9.7), Uzbekistan (9.9), Portugal (10.0). Countries that must cease GHG pollution within 10-20 years. Switzerland (10.2 years), Azerbaijan (10.6), Angola (10.8), Bahamas (10.9), Benin (11.1), Zimbabwe (11.1), Laos (11.3), Mexico (11.3), Nepal (11.4), Colombia (11.4), Namibia (11.4), Chile (11.4), Malta (11.8), Congo, Republic (12.0), Madagascar (12.0), Croatia (12.2), Jamaica (12.2), Macedonia (12.4), Barbados (12.4), Latvia (12.6), Mauritania (12.9), Turkey (12.9), Romania (13.1), Lithuania (13.4), Costa Rica (13.4), Lebanon (13.6), North Korea (13.9), Thailand (14.1), Jordan (14.7), Honduras (15.3), Sudan (15.7), Bosnia & Herzegovina (16.0), Algeria (17.2), Iraq (17.2), Sierra Leone (17.2), Syria (18.0), China (18.5), Tunisia (19.5), Dominican Republic (20.6 years). Countries that must cease GHG pollution within 20-30 years. St Kitts & Nevis (21.8), Nigeria (21.8), Fiji (21.8), Guinea (22.5), Mauritius (22.5), Cuba (23.3), Togo (23.3), Vanuatu (24.0), Philippines (24.0), Malawi (24.0), Mali (24.9), Chad (24.9), Sri Lanka (25.8), Uganda (26.7), Dominica (26.7), St Lucia (26.7), Egypt (27.7), Niue (27.7), Ghana (27.7), Moldova (28.8), Grenada (28.8), El Salvador (30.0), Guinea-Bissau (30.0), Tanzania (30.0), Djibouti (30.0). Countries that must cease GHG pollution within 30-50 years. Pakistan (31.3 years), Samoa (31.3), Tonga (31.3), Morocco (32.8), Senegal (32.8), Albania (32.8), Georgia (32.8), Armenia (34.3), St Vincent & Grenadines (36.1), Kenya (36.1), Maldives (37.9), Kyrgyzstan (37.9), Burkina Faso (37.9), India (40.1), Cook Islands (40.1), Bhutan (42.4), Yemen (45.1), Tajikistan (45.1), Mozambique (45.1), Rwanda (45.1), Burundi (45.1), Lesotho (48.1), Swaziland (48.1). Countries that must cease GHG pollution within about 50-120 years. Eritrea (51.5), Haiti (51.5), Solomon Islands (65.5), Vietnam (65.5), Cape Verde (65.5), Niger (65.5), Ethiopia (65.5), São Tomé and Príncipe (72.1), Afghanistan (80.1), The Gambia (80.1), Bangladesh (80.1), Comoros (103.0), Kiribati (120.2). I must reiterate that there is no way that Australia will meet its global “fair shares†obligations because it is fundamentally committed to oil use and to coal and gas use and exports. Thus about 92% of Australia's electricity derives from fossil fuel combustion, Australia is the world's biggest coal exporter and a major liquid natural gas (LNG) exporter. Both the major parties, the Liberal –National Party Coalition Opposition (the Libs) and the Labor Government (the Labs) (collectively known as the Lib-Labs) are committed to a derisory policy of 5% off 2000 Domestic GHG pollution by 2020 but with greed-driven growth of coal and LNG Exports (at 2.6% pa and 9% pa, respectively). Australia is committed to a greedy and inhumane course of climate exceptionalism, climate racism and climate injustice. Having ALREADY used up its share of the terminal 600 Gt CO2-e budget, climate criminal Australia is now greedily and disproportionately using up the quotas of other countries (climate racism), with serious global implications as set out below. . Both Dr James Lovelock FRS (Gaia hypothesis) and Professor Kevin Anderson ( Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, UK) have recently estimated that only about 0.5 billion people will survive this century due to unaddressed, man-made global warming. Noting that the world population is expected to reach 9.5 billion by 2050, these estimates translate to a Climate Genocide involving deaths of about 10 billion people this century, mostly non-Europeans, this including about 6 billion under-5 year old infants, 3 billion Muslims in a terminal Muslim Holocaust, 2 billion Indians, 1.3 billion non-Arab Africans, 0.5 billion Bengalis, 0.3 billion Pakistanis and 0.3 billion Bangladeshis. Already 18 million people die avoidably every year in Developing countries (minus China) due to deprivation and deprivation-exacerbated disease and man-made global warming is already clearly worsening this global avoidable mortality holocaust. However 10 billion avoidable deaths due to global warming this century will yield an average global annual avoidable death rate of 100 million per year (see “Climate Genocideâ€). Where does your country come in this “years left until zero emissions†analysis? The World is badly running out of time. The World will have to take action against the more notorious climate criminal and climate racist countries such as Australia through Sanctions, Boycotts, Sporting Boycotts (as were successfully applied to Apartheid South Africa through exclusion from the Olympic Games and other events), Green Tariffs, International Court of Justice litigations and International Criminal Court prosecutions.
  12. The Gillard Labor Australian Federal Government has announced details of its Carbon Tax-ETS-Ignore Agriculture (CTETSIA) plan by which it ostensibly proposes to “tackle climate changeâ€. However sensible analysis of the proposals makes it clear that Australia’s pro-coal, pro-gas Labor Government has no intention of doing anything of the kind and its plan is simply a rhetoric-cloaked scheme for entrenched climate change inaction while pretending to do otherwise. Before considering the details of Labor's plan one must consider Australia's position as a world leader in annual per capita greenhouse gas pollution and fossil fuel exports. Australia’s Domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution including land use in Mt (million tonnes) CO2-e (CO2-equivalent) was 465 Mt CO2-e in 2000 but reached 600 Mt CO2-e in 2009. However simple cause-and-effect considerations mean that one must also consider Australia’s huge fossil fuel exports that in 2009 totalled 815 Mt CO2-e, the breakdown being 31 Mt CO2-e (liquid natural gas, LNG) plus 784 Mt CO2-e (coal). Thus Australia’s Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution was 1,415 Mt CO2-e in 2009. Australia's annual per capita GHG pollution in 2009 was accordingly 600 Mt CO2-e/21.9 million people = 27.4 tonnes CO2-e per person per year but 1,415 Mt CO2-e/21.9 million persons = 64.6 tonnes CO2-e per person per year if Australia’s huge fossil fuel exports are included. By way of comparison, the annual per capita GHG pollution of Bangladesh is 0.9 tonnes CO2-e per person per year, 72 times lower than Australia’s Domestic plus Exported annual per capita GHG pollution). "This is a profoundly dishonest, counterproductive and damaging proposal that fails to seriously tackle man-made climate change." The Labor Government plan involves the following major features (noting that Australia’s GDP is about $1,000 billion and that its power generation capacity, about 90% fossil fuel-based, is about 50,000 MW). 1. There will be a derisory GHG pollution target of “5% off 2000 GHG pollution by 2020†and a target of 80% reduction by 2050. A Climate Change Authority will recommend caps for an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and GHG pollution targets. The Government will be asked to explain if it does not adopt the recommended targets. 2. A very low carbon price or Carbon Tax of $23 per tonne of carbon ( $23/tC) will apply to a politics-determined, limited set of GHG sources from 1 July 2012, rising by 2.5% in 2013-214 and 2014-2015. In July 2015 a Cap-and-Trade Carbon Trading Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) will be introduced and the Carbon Tax will be allowed to float between a price floor of $15/tC (indexed) and 20% above the expected international price (also indexed). 3. The Carbon Tax will only apply to stationary energy (power stations), industrial processes (e.g. steel and cement manufacture) and fugitive emissions (e.g. from coal mines and rubbish tips). However, in keeping with the profoundly corrupt nature of Australian society, the Carbon Tax will not be applied to agriculture, light commercial and household transport, and to trucks. However trucking outside of agriculture will face reduced business fuel tax credits from 2014. Aviation will face a higher excise on fuel. The Australian Productivity Commission will review fuel tax arrangements. 4. The ETS arrangement will permit International Carbon credits after 2015 to offset the cost of licenses to pollute the one common atmosphere of all countries of the World. A maximum of 50% of International Credits can be used (e.g. from forestry-related deals with tropical Developing countries). 5. There will be all kinds of taxation benefits and pension increases to cover the increased costs of the Carbon Tax flowing through to electricity, gas and other purchases by middle to low income people. 6. Emissions intensive trade-exposed industries (notably steel) will be partly protected. A Coal Sector Jobs Package will give $1.3 billion over 6 years to assist over emissions from gassy mines. A Clean Technology Program will provide $1.2 billion to support low emissions technology in manufacturing. An Energy Security Fund will provide $5.5 billion in free permits and cash to 2016-2107 and up to 2000MW of high emissions power plants will be closed. 7. A Clean Energy Finance Corporation will invest $10 billion over 5 years from 2013-2104 in renewables and low emissions technologies (excluding Carbon Capture and Storage). An Australian Renewable Energy Agency will supervise $3.2 billion in renewable energy funding. It is projected that $100 billion will be invested in renewable energy over the next 40 years (i.e. $2.5 billion per year). 8. The revenue is expected to be $8 -$9 billion pa to 2014-2015 and fuel tax savings when implemented will save $0.6 billion pa. Household assistance will cost $4-$5 billion pa and industry assistance will cost about $3 billion pa. However a further $1 billion pa is required from general taxation-derived revenue to pay for the package. Out of this about $2 billion will go to fund renewable energy. This is a profoundly dishonest, counterproductive and damaging proposal that fails to seriously tackle man-made climate change and indeed entrenches climate change inaction in disproportionately polluting, climate criminal Australia. In contrast, the Liberal Party-National Party Coalition Opposition has a Direct Action Plan that involves Government savings-funded action of re-afforestation, biochar and lower emissions technology and costing about $1 billion pa to achieve the same derisory “5% of 2000 GHG by 2020†goal of the Labor Government . The Coalition proposal has the benefits that it does not damage Australian industry and does not entrench climate change inaction (the Coalition scheme can be readily ramped up if needed – and of course, massive ramping up is needed). More specific criticisms of the Labor Carbon–Tax-ETS-Ignore Agriculture (CTETSIA) plan are set out point-by-point below. 1. Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, and currently visiting Melbourne to speak at the “Four Degrees or More?†conference at the University of Melbourne, wrote as follows in Melbourne’s The Age newspaper (11 July 2011): “leading [the World] is about Australia adopting for itself the kind of reduction target that is needed from all to keep warming below 2 degrees. The 5 per cent reduction from 2000 by 2020 position of Australia translates into about a 25 per cent to 30 per cent increase in industrial greenhouse gas emissions above 1990 levels, once all of Australia's special accounting rules are includedâ€. If we assume that Labor actually succeeds in achieving "5% off 2000 GHG pollution by 2020" this will mean Australia’s Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution in 2020 will be roughly double that in 2000 (see: Australia’s “5% off 2000 GHG pollution by 2020†endangers Australia, Humanity and Biosphere). According to Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, for a 67% chance of avoiding a catastrophic 2 degree Centigrade temperature rise, the World must cease CO2 emissions by 2050 and top per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) polluters such as the US and Australia must get to zero CO2 emissions by 2020. According to the Australian Climate Commission's 2011 "The Critical Decade" report, for a 75% chance of avoiding a disastrous 2 degree Centigrade temperature rise the World can emit no more than 1 trillion tonnes of CO2 before reaching zero emissions in about 2050. Australia's high Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution rate means it must get to zero emissions in 1.9 years or in 4.6 years (ignoring Exported GHG pollution) (see: Australia Ignores 25 Huge Climate Change Realities). 2. It is estimated that a carbon tax of greater than $25/tonne carbon will encourage gas-fired power, $70/tonne carbon is needed to encourage wind and about $200/tonne carbon will encourage concentrated solar thermal installation (indeed Labor hopes for a Carbon Tax-driven coal to gas transition) . Gas is not clean, it is dirty, 1 tonne of methane (CH4) generating 2.8 tonnes CO2 on combustion. Gas burning is cleaner than coal burning in terms of twice the MWh/tonne CO2 emitted and less health damaging pollutants but gas is not cleaner than coal burning GHG-wise. Thus methane (CH4) leaks (3.3%) and is 105 times worse than CO2 as a GHG on a 20 year timeframe taking aerosol impacts into account, this meaning that a Carbon Tax-driven coal to gas transition will double electric power industry-derived GHG pollution. 3. The Carbon Tax only applies to the approximately about one third of Australia’s sources of GHG pollution and notoriously excludes agriculture which, according got the latest World bank assessment, is responsible for over 50% of GHG pollution. These politics-driven exclusions are discriminatory as well as making it quite clear that Labor simply does not want to “tackle climate changeâ€. The boasted “80% off by 2050†can be seen as dishonest spin because most of the politicians involved will be dead or extremely elderly by 2050. 4. The ETS approach has been condemned by top climate scientists, economists and analysts as empirically ineffective (e.g. the outstandingly ineffective EU ETS), disastrously counterproductive, market manipulation-permissive and inherently fraudulent (Australia proposes to sell licences to pollute the one common atmosphere of all countries in the World). For about 50 such expert views condemning the ETS approach see 300.org). The use of International Credits is a dishonest ploy that enables high polluting companies to obtain much cheaper Carbon Credits outside Australia from corrupt and impoverished Third World countries. 5. Of the Carbon Tax and other revenue or savings amounting to about $10 billion pa, about $5 billion will be given to householders to pay for the increased costs passed on to them by the energy sector and other industry. However this simply makes Australian manufacturing less competitive, a problem compounded by the very high value of Australian dollar. 6. In addition to half the Carbon Tax money going to enable householders to pay for increased costs, the most highly polluting industries will be further supported by about $3 billion pa. The ETS will involve massive subsidies for major polluters. 7. $2 billion per year for renewables is pathetically small given the urgent, science-demanded need to reach 100% renewable energy ASAP (see point #1), an achievement that will variously cost $37 billion pa for 10years (wind and concentrated solar energy with molten salts energy storage; Beyond Zero Emissions), $13 billion pa for 20 years (Professor Peter Seligman’s scheme in his book “Australian Sustainable Energy - by the numbersâ€); $14-$20 billion pa for 10 years (for wind power providing 80% of an estimated 325,000 GWh of electrical energy needed by continent Australia in 2020). In social context, Australians spend about $20 billion pa on gambling. Of course one must also realize that anti-science Labor has a strange notion of what “renewable energy†means – thus this term covered methane for hot water and methane from mines in Federal Renewable Energy legislation several years ago. 8. Overall, this Carbon Tax amounts to a futile cycle of taxing some polluters and returning the money to the polluters or to consumers to help them pay for increased prices – with an arguable $2 billion pa slippage for renewable energy investment. And all this to achieve a doubling of Australia’s 2000 Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution by 2020 while pretending to “tackle climate changeâ€. The extraordinarily incompetent, pro-coal, pro-gas Gillard Labor Government is good at one thing – politics. Labor has very successfully conned most of the pro-environment movement in Australia into support for its disastrous climate policies on the utterly flawed basis that “doing something is better than doing nothingâ€. However dispassionate, science-based analysis says that Labor’s policy will be a comprehensive disaster. The fundamental reason for the disaster is that Labor’s policy is based on an endlessly trumpeted lie, specifically that it wants to “tackle climate changeâ€. PM Julia “Juliar†Gillard refuses to say if she had opposed the ETS proposal of former Labor PM Kevin Rudd and is much criticized for promising before the last election that there would not be a Carbon Tax if her government was re-elected. Now she says that she went to the election supporting an ETS, conveniently ignoring the reality that an ETS is in itself a huge Carbon Tax. If Labor were serious about “tackling climate change†it would immediately (a) abolish the estimated $12 billion pa in fossil fuel subsidies and ( simply abolish export licences for Australia’s coal and natural gas exports. In 2009 Australia’s Domestic GHG pollution was 600 Mt CO2-e and its Exported GHG was 815 Mt CO2-e, the total being 1,415 Mt CO2-e. In 2000 Australia’s Domestic GHG (465 Mt CO2-e) plus Exported GHG (349.4 Mt CO2-e) was 814 Mt CO2-e. By 2020 on Labor’s policies, Australia’s Domestic GHG pollution will be 442 Mt CO2-e and its Exported GHG will be 1,149 Mt CO2-e, the total being 1,591 Mt CO2-e, 12% bigger than at present and 195% of that in 2000. The Australian Labor Government has no intention of “tackling climate change†while dishonestly pretending otherwise. Of course there is a fundamentally important domestic reason for Australia to stop carbon pollution. Carbon burning pollutants have been estimated from Canadian and New Zealand data to kill about 10,000 Australians yearly. Australians dying each year from the effects of pollutants from vehicles, coal burning for electricity and other carbon burning total about 2,200, 4,600 and 2,800, respectively. Further, “annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution†in units of “tonnes CO2 -equivalent per person per year†(2005-2009 data) is 0.9 (Bangladesh), 0.9 (Pakistan), 2.2 (India), less than 3 (many African and Island countries), 3.2 (the Developing World), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 16 (the Developed World), 27 (the US) and 27 (Australia; or 64 if Australia's huge Exported CO2 pollution is included). In summary, in stark contrast to the Australian Coalition Opposition's too-little-too-late Direct Action policy, the pro-coal, pro-gas, anti-science, market economics-based Carbon Tax-ETS-Ignore Agriculture (CTETSIA) policy of the Gillard Labor Government fails comprehensively in 2 key areas, specifically (1) it entrenches climate change inaction for decades by promoting a Carbon Tax-driven coal to gas transition (that will double electricity generation-derived GHG pollution) and scuppering science-demanded 100% renewable energy by 2020 and (2) it adopts an empirically ineffective, disastrously counterproductive and inherently fraudulent ETS approach as well as ignoring petrol, fossil fuel exports (apart from fugitive emissions, extraction and transport costs), soil, forestry and agriculture (agriculture being responsible for over 50% of GHG pollution). And Australia’s huge fossil fuel exports will continue to remorselessly expand with an annual growth of 2.4% for coal and 9% for LNG. Climate criminal, climate racist Australia is disproportionately involved in a worsening climate genocide that is predicted to kill about 10 billion non-Europeans this century (see “Climate Genocideâ€). Australia's selfish, greedy, politically correct racist (PC racist), dog-in-the-manger intransigence about climate change action invites international boycotts, divestment and sanctions (BDS), sporting bans (e.g. exclusion from the Olympics and the football and cricket World Cups), Green Tariffs, International Court of Justice (ICJ) litigations and International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutions. What can decent people do? Decent folk must (a) inform everyone they can and ( demand sanctions in response to Australia 's entrenched policy of disproportionate greenhouse gas pollution of the World's one common atmosphere.
  13. Why we must oppose transition to gas-fired power

    "These estimates translate to a climate genocide involving the deaths of 10 billion people this century..."There is an overwhelming global scientific consensus that global warming is real, man-made and must be urgently addressed, As adjudged from the rhetoric at the disastrous Copenhagen (2009) and Cancun (2010) climate change summits, most world leaders acknowledge the problem. However in practice politicians are still largely committed to disastrous “business as usual†(BAU) policies. Nevertheless most politicians must appear to be “tackling climate change†while in reality playing a BAU game acceptable to huge fossil fuel interests. One such false, phony, politically disingenuous approach has been the Carbon Trading-based Cap-and-Trade Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) approach. The ETS approach has been variously slammed as (a) empirically ineffective (despite ETS measures carbon dioxide, (CO2) pollution continues to increase remorselessly and indeed man-made global warming has been described by top economist Professor Sir Nicholas Stern as “the greatest market failure the world has seenâ€; (2) dangerously counterproductive (we are running out of time, CO2 emissions must cease by 2050 for the World and by 2020 for the US, and there is no point wasting time going down a route already demonstrated to be ineffective); and (3) utterly fraudulent ( the ETS approach has already engendered market manipulation fraud, involves selling licences to pollute that must ultimately be worthless, and fundamentally involves governments selling something they do not have the right to sell, specifically the “right†to pollute the one common atmosphere of all peoples). [1]. A further phony approach that is now being implemented on a massive scale around the world is a coal-to-gas transition on the basis that (1) gas burning for power typically yields half the carbon dioxide (CO2) pollution as coal burning per unit of electrical energy produced and (2) gas burning is associated with greatly lowered carbon particulates, sulphur dioxide (SO2), heavy metals and organics and an 80% reduction in carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (nitrous oxide, N2O, nitrogen dioxide, NO2, and nitric oxide. NO, these being collectively denoted as NOx). However, as set out below, the reality is that gas burning seriously threatens the Planet because (A) Humanity should be urgently decreasing and certainly not increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution; ( Natural Gas (mainly methane, CH4) is not clean energy greenhouse gas (GHG)-wise; and © Pollutants from gas leakage and gas burning pose a chemical risk to residents, agriculture and the environment. (A) Australia and the World should be decreasing and not increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution. Both Dr James Lovelock FRS (Gaia hypothesis) and Professor Kevin Anderson ( Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, UK) have recently estimated that fewer than 1 billion people will survive this century due to unaddressed, man-made global warming – noting that the world population is expected to reach 9.5 billion by 2050, these estimates translate to a climate genocide involving deaths of 10 billion people this century, this including 6 billion under-5 year old infants, 3 billion Muslims in a terminal Muslim Holocaust, 2 billion Indians, 1.3 billion non-Arab Africans, 0.5 billion Bengalis, 0.3 billion Pakistanis and 0.3 billion Bangladeshis. Already 16 million people (about 9.5 million of them under-5 year old infants) die avoidably every year due to deprivation and deprivation-exacerbated disease – and man-made global warming is already clearly worsening this global avoidable mortality holocaust. However 10 billion avoidable deaths due to global warming this century yields an average annual avoidable death rate of 100 million per year. [2]. Collective, national responsibility for this already commenced Climate Holocaust is in direct proportion to per capita national pollution of the atmosphere with greenhouse gases (GHGs). Indeed, fundamental to any international agreement on national rights to pollute our common atmosphere and oceans should be the belief that “all men are created equalâ€. However reality is otherwise: “annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution†in units of “tonnes CO2-equivalent [CO2-e] per person per year†(2005-2008 data) is 0.9 (Bangladesh), 0.9 (Pakistan), 2.2 (India), less than 3 (many African and Island countries), 3.2 (the Developing World), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 16 (the Developed World), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; or 54 if Australia’s huge Exported CO2 pollution is included). [2]. However expansion of Australia’s exported GHG pollution is occurring through increasing black coal, liquid natural gas (LNG) and dried brown coal exports and increased pollution domestically through new fossil fuel power plants (coal and natural gas). Thus exports of brown coal from Victoria to Asia are expected to reach 20 million tonnes [Mt] per year (74 million tonnes CO2-e). [3]. If this is achieved by 2020 then Australia's Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution in 2020 will be 1245 Mt + 74 Mt = 1319 Mt CO2-e = 149% of that in 2000. The Australia Federal Government’s derisory pledge of “5% off 2000 level by 2020†in actual reality seems likely to be about “150% of 2000 level by 2020â€. [4]. Based on UN Population Division population projections, Australia’s 2020 annual per capita Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution is accordingly projected to reach 1319 Mt CO2-e / 23.4 million people = 56 tonnes CO2-e per person per year, 62 times that of Bangladesh, a densely populated country acutely threatened by inundation from mainly First World-imposed GHG pollution. [4]. Leading climate scientist Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber CBE (Director of Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research [PIK], Germany and variously associated with the University of Manchester, University of East Anglia and Oxford University) has estimated that for a 67% chance of avoiding a catastrophic 2 degree Centigrade temperature rise (the EU target; would you board a plane if it had a 33% chance of crashing?) the World has to cease CO2 emissions by 2050. “All man are created equal†means that all human beings must be allotted equal shares of CO2 pollution until 2050. This means that high per capita countries such as the US and Australia must reach zero CO2 emissions by 2020 while low per capita emitters (e.g. India and Burkina Faso) can increase their emissions until finally reaching zero emissions by 2050. [5]. It must be noted that other leading climate scientists have reached similar conclusions about the urgency of achieving zero emissions. Thus Dr Vicky Pope (Head of Climate Change Advice, UK Met Office Hadley Centre): “Latest climate projections from the Met Office Hadley Centre show the possible range of temperature rises, depending on what action is taken to reduce Greenhouse gas emissions. Even with large and early cuts in emissions, the indications are that temperatures are likely to rise to around 2 °C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. If action is delayed or not quick enough, there is a large risk of much bigger increases in temperature, with some severe impacts. In a worst-case scenario, where no action is taken to check the rise in Greenhouse gas emissions, temperatures would most likely rise by more than 5 °C by the end of the century. This would lead to significant risks of severe and irreversible impacts. In the most optimistic scenario, action to reduce emissions would need to start in 2010 and reach a rapid and sustained rate of decline of 3 per cent every year. Even then there would still only be a 50-50 chance of keeping temperature rises below around 2°C. This contrasts sharply with current trends, where the world’s overall emissions are currently increasing at 1 per cent every year.†[6]. Similarly, Professor Kevin Anderson and Dr Alice Bows (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK): “According to the analysis conducted in this paper, stabilizing at 450 ppmv [carbon dioxide equivalent = CO2-e, atmospheric concentration measured in parts per million by volume] requires, at least, global energy related emissions to peak by 2015, rapidly decline at 6-8% per year between 2020 and 2040, and for full decarbonization sometime soon after 2050 …Unless economic growth can be reconciled with unprecedented rates of decarbonization (in excess of 6% per year), it is difficult to envisage anything other than a planned economic recession being compatible with stabilization at or below 650 ppmv CO2-e... Ultimately, the latest scientific understanding of climate change allied with current emissions trends and a commitment to “limiting average global temperature increases to below 4oC above pre-industrial levelsâ€, demands a radical reframing of both the climate change agenda, and the economic characterization of contemporary society.†[7]. Dr James Hansen, (head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, and an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University) has concluded: “After the ice has gone, would the Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I’ve come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas , and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certaintyâ€. [8]. However, achieving zero CO2 emissions is just the start. Many top climate scientists and biologists state that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration (currently a damaging 392 ppm and increasing at about 2 ppm per annum) must be urgently reduced to about 300 ppm for a safe planet for all peoples and all species. [9]. At current CO2 pollution rates, in about 30 years the atmospheric CO2 concentration will reach 450 ppm, a level at which the Great Barrier Reef coral and indeed most coral around the World is doomed from the dual effects of warming and ocean acidification. [10]. The message from science is unequivocal. High per capita GHG polluter Australia is obliged top cease CO2 pollution by 2020. Accordingly any further expansion of Australian Domestic or Exported GHG pollution is absolutely contra-indicated. A key part of achieving 100% cessation of CO2 pollution by 2020 is installation of 100% renewable energy. Professor Peter Seligman (bionic ear electrical engineer. University of Melbourne) has published a book, “Australian Sustainable Energy- By the Numbersâ€, setting out how Australia can get 100% renewable energy by 2030 at a cost $253 billion, his scheme involving a mix of wind, concentrated solar thermal and other technologies with hydrological energy storage for 24/7 baseload operation. [11]. An Australian engineering team called Beyond Zero Emissions has released its 5 year study on Zero Carbon Australia by 2020 (ZCA2020) Report) that shows how Australia can have 100% renewable energy by 2020 for $370 billion using renewable technologies of wind power and concentrated solar thermal with molten salts energy storage for 24/7, baseload operation. [12]. Professor Mark Jacobson of Stanford University, California, and Mark A. Delucchi of University of California Davis have produced a plan for 100% renewable energy plan for the whole world by 2020. [13]. Unfortunately the clear message from top scientists is being ignored because of the lobbying power of “business as usual†and fossil fuel vested interests. Dr James Hansen in answer to the question “Is there any real chance of averting the climate crisis?â€, has stated: “Absolutely. It is possible – if we give politicians a cold, hard slap in the face. The fraudulence of the Copenhagen approach – "goals" for emission reductions, "offsets" that render ironclad goals almost meaningless, the ineffectual "cap-and-trade" mechanism – must be exposed. We must rebel against such politics as usual.†[14]. Gas (mainly methane) is not clean energy greenhouse gas (GHG)-wise. The Australian Labor Government and the natural gas industry are utterly incorrect in their repeated assertion that “natural gas is clean energyâ€. However this untruth remains formally uncorrected and is now spreading through society, through media and even into the environment movement. [15]. The truth is otherwise – natural gas is dirty energy and on combustion is twice as carbon dioxide (CO2) polluting as brown coal on a weight basis. Further, in Victoria the carbon pollution currently ranges from 1.2-1.5 tonnes C/MWh for major brown coal plants and 0.6-0.9 tonnes C/MWh for major gas-fired plants – gas may be “clean-er†on this basis but is certainly not “cleanâ€. [16]. However even the asserted “clean-er†status of gas as a fossil fuel is belied by the recent analysis by Professor Robert Howarth of Cornell University, New York, USA, who has concluded that : “A complete consideration of all emissions from using natural gas seems likely to make natural gas a far less attractive than oil and not significantly better than coal in terms of the consequences for global warming.†[17] Natural gas (mostly methane, CH4) yields carbon dioxide (CO2) on combustion as does black coal (mostly Carbon, C) and brown coal (65% water, H2O). The molecular weights of CH4 and CO2 are 16 and 44, respectively. The atomic weights of oxygen (O), carbon © and hydrogen (H) are 16, 12 and 1, respectively. Burning 16 tonnes of CH4 yields 44 tonnes CO2 (i.e. burning 1 tonne of natural gas yields 2.8 tonnes CO2). Burning 12 tonnes of C yields 44 tonnes of CO2 (i.e. burning 1 tonne of coal – assuming it to be 100% carbon – yields 3.7 tonnes of CO2). Brown coal (that is burned to produce most of the electricity in Victoria, Australia) has a water (H2O) content of about 65% and thus burning 1 tonne of brown coal would yield 0.35 x 3.7 = 1.3 tonnes of CO2, or about 46% of that produced by burning 1 tonne of natural gas (2.8 tonnes of CO2). Clearly, on a weight basis, burning natural gas (CH4) yields twice as much CO2 as burning brown coal. However proponents of gas burning assert that it is only 50% as polluting as black coal and only 30% as polluting as brown coal in terms of grams CO2 generated per million joules of energy. Methane (CH4) has a molecular weight of 16 and carbon dioxide (CO2) has a molecular weight of 44. When you burn CH4 you get CO2: CH4 + 2O2 -> CO2 + 2 H2O. Accordingly burning 16 tonnes of CH4 yields 44 tonnes of CO2 and burning 100 tonnes of CH4 yields 100x 44/16 = 275 tonnes of CO2. However if there is industrial leakage of CH4 (estimated to be at least 2.2% by the US EPA) then one must consider the greenhouse gas effect of the released methane (72 times worse than CO2 as a greenhouse gas on a 20 year time scale). Of our 100 tonnes of CH4, how much CH4 leakage (y tonnes) gives the same greenhouse effect (in CO2 equivalents or CO2-e) as burning the remaining CH4? y tonnes CH4 x (72 tonnes CO2-e/tonne CH4) = (100-y) tonnes CH4 x (2.75 tonnes CO2-e/ tonne CH4). 72y tonnes CO2-e = (100-y) 2.75 tonnes CO2-e 72y = 275 – 2.75y 74.75y = 275 y = 275/74.75 = 3.68 i.e. a 3.7% leakage of CH4 yields that same greenhouse effect as burning the remaining CH4 (check: 3.68 tonnes leaked CH4 corresponds to 3.68 tonnes CH4 x 72 tonnes CO2-e/ tonne CH4 = 265 tonnes CO2-e . Burning the remaining 96.32 tonnes of CH4 corresponds to 96.32 tonnes CH4 x 2.75 tonnes CO2/tonne CH4 = 265 tonnes CO2). [18]. Recent re-assessment by the US EPA of US natural gas leakage has led to the estimate that "3.25 % of US natural gas production leaks into the atmosphere as methane gas". [19]. There is no point spending billions of dollars replacing coal with natural gas and locking us into something essentially as bad as coal for decades more. Top climate scientists say that we must urgently reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration from the current damaging 392 parts per million (ppm) to a safe and sustainable 300 ppm for a safe and sustainable planet for all peoples and all species. Pollutants from gas leakage and gas burning threaten residents, agriculture and the environment. Natural gas is not necessarily cleaner than coal for power generation in terms of greenhouse gas pollution (see part ( above). However the bottom line in any analysis of any social policy is avoidable human morbidity (sickness) and mortality (death). That fundamental consideration and other environmental impacts of gas burning heavily inform the following numbered concerns about the threat of gas burning to residents, agriculture and the environment. [20]. 1. It can be proportionally estimated from Canadian and New Zealand epidemiological data that about10,000 Australians die annually from the effects of carbon burning pollutants, the breakdown being about 5,000 (coal and gas burning for electrical power), 2,000 ( vehicle exhaust) and 3,000 (other fossil fuel combustion excluding bush fires). Accordingly any increase in fossil fuel burning is contra-indicated. [21-26]. 2. International comparisons of fossil fuel-based power pollution deaths can be made. “Annual coal-based electricity deaths†[“total annual fossil fuel-based electricity deathsâ€] are 170,000 [283,000] (the World), 11,000 [13,000] (India), 47,000 [47,500] (China), 49,000 [72,000] (the US), 3,400 [6,900] (the UK), 4,900 [5,400] (Australia) and 2,700 [3,800](Canada) as compared to 110 [360] (heavily renewable-based New Zealand). These estimates of total fossil fuel-based deaths (i.e. from coal burning plus gas burning) are simply ball-park upper limits deriving from a crude assumption, in the absence of readily available data otherwise, of the same mortality from gas burning as from coal burning. In reality, since pollutants are much lower from gas burning (see #3 below) one expects deaths from gas burning for power to be lower than for coal burning. However while transition top gas burning might be expected to decrease mortality from fossil fuel burning for power, clearly gas burning will contribute to such mortality. A direct transition from coal burning to renewables is clearly highly desirable from the perspective of avoiding human and environmental impacts . [24-26]. 3. Pollutants (pounds per Billion Btu of energy input) from gas, oil and coal burning are as follows: carbon dioxide (CO2) (117,000, 164,000, 208,000, respectively); carbon monoxide (CO) (40, 33, 208), nitrogen oxides (N2O, NO2 and NO i.e. NOx) (92, 448, 457); sulphur dioxide (SO2) (1, 1122, 2591); particulates (7, 84, 2744); and Mercury (0.000, 0.007, 0.016) i.e. deaths from gas burning for power may be expected to be lower than for coal burning. However CO pollution and NOx pollution from gas burning for power is about 20% of that from coal burning i.e. gas burning produces substantial quantities of dangerous pollutants. [27, 28] 4. In addition to methane and other aliphatic (non-aromatic) hydrocarbons, natural gas can contain toxic materials such as aromatic organics, notably those innately present or deriving from “fracking†mixtures used to help extract gas from fractured rocks or coal seams (e.g. benzene, toluene, ethylbenze and xylene), radon (and other radioactive materials), and organometallics (e.g. methylmercury , organoarsenic compounds and organolead compounds). Incomplete combustion and industrial leakage of natural gas (estimated by the US EPA to be at least 2.2% globally and recently assessed to be at least 3.3% in the US ; see section ( above) will pollute the local environment with these toxic substances. Radon and other radioactive materials are mutagenic and carcinogenic. Aromatic organics are carcinogenic. Organometallics are fat soluble, leading to long-term storage in human fat tissue. Methylmercury is neurotoxic (e.g. as in Minamata syndrome). Organoarsenic and organolead compounds are variously toxic. Arsenic is toxic, teratogenic (yielding birth defects) and carcinogenic. [27]. 5. Nitrous oxide (N2O), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitric oxide (NO) (collectively described as NOx) are major products from natural gas combustion. According to the US EPA: “NOx react with ammonia, moisture, and other compounds to form small particles. These small particles penetrate deeply into sensitive parts of the lungs and can cause or worsen respiratory disease, such as emphysema and bronchitis, and can aggravate existing heart disease, leading to increased hospital admissions and premature death.†[28, 29].. 6. According to the US EPA: “Ozone is formed when NOx and volatile organic compounds react in the presence of heat and sunlight. Children, the elderly, people with lung diseases such as asthma, and people who work or exercise outside are at risk for adverse effects from ozone. These include reduction in lung function and increased respiratory symptoms as well as respiratory-related emergency department visits, hospital admissions, and possibly premature deaths.†[29]. 7. Nitrogen oxides can seriously injure vegetation, bleaching or killing plant tissue, causing leaf fall and reducing growth rate. Ozone pollution damages photosynthesis by plants. NOx air pollution contributes to acidifying nitrate deposition (with fish kills and reduction in plant growth), causes excess soil nitrification in ecosystems (with damage to vegetation, loss of biodiversity, increased GHG pollution) and is regarded not just a s a threat to agriculture and forestry but also to as a major threat to national parks and wilderness areas . [30, 31]. 8. Gas burning-based power generation at a circa 1000 MW level in an urban environment can have very serious health consequences. Thus the City of Sydney (New South Wales, Australia) has pledged to install more than 100 trigeneration gas-burning turbines which burn gas to generate electricity and then capture the exhaust to heat and cool buildings as necessary. NSW Department of Environment and Climate Change has slammed this proposal saying that emissions from just 10MW of "co-generation" (a similar engine that heats but doesn't cool buildings) could exceed health limits and that 200 MW generation would certainly do so: “On an hourly basis 330MW of gas-fired co-generation [the amount envisioned] could emit up to 660kg per hour of NOx; this is more NOx than the combined emissions from the Shell and Caltex oil refineries in Sydney…As a result there is little 'headroom' available to accommodate uncontrolled emissions from cogeneration without causing local health impacts.†The National Environment Protection Council sets a limit of 0.03 parts per million (ppm) for allowed levels of NOx release average over a year. By way of example, the current proposal for 1,000 MW gas-fired power plant to be built 1.5 kilometres from the Lockyer Valley town of Gatton (Queensland, Australia) is contra-indicated on the basis of NOx pollution health effects on the nearby community. [32, 33]. 9. A further threat from gas fired power generation comers from the generation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. A study of pollution from a 70-year-old natural gas-fired power station in Canada stated: "This paper presents the results of a risk assessment study made using CalTOX, a multimedia, multiple pathway risk assessment model. The case study is based on the Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon (PAH) soil contamination resulting from the activities of a natural gas power station over a period of 70 years. It describes model characteristics and input parameters such as physico-chemical properties, landscape description, and human exposure factors. Model simulations and risk estimations corresponding to different remedial scenarios in an industrial zone are also presented. These estimations were based on soil contamination by 16 PAHs in the root-zone and vadose-zone layer. Results show that adult exposure (workers) to contaminated soil will lead to a potential health risk of carcinogenic effects, and to no potential risk of non-carcinogenic effects. On the other hand, the addition of 10 cm of clean soil over the contaminated soil (mitigated scenario) decreases the lifetime cancer risk to an acceptable level. The sensitivity analysis showed that the half-life of benzo[a]pyrene in the root-zone soil is the most sensitive parameter and that it contributes significantly to the variability of the cancer risk estimation. [34]." 10. A final major argument derives from cause and effect and the sources of the methane to be used. Australia and America are currently undergoing a gas exploitation boom that flies in the face of what top climate scientists are telling us. The film Gasland presents a deeply upsetting portrait of the devastation across America by the “frackers†involved in recovery of gas from fractured rocks and coal seams. In Australia, in addition to conventional offshore and on on-shore gas exploitation, there is a rapidly advancing coal seam gas industry involving “fracking†that has generated protest from both environmentalists and farmers. Whether the gas used in a gas-fired power station is on-shore- or off-shore-derived it is part of the total resource and accordingly no consequences of any gas extraction (e.g. environmental pollution as set out in “Gaslandâ€) can be ignored. [35]. In summary, objections to the transition from coal burning-based power to gas burning-based power are that (A) Humanity should be urgently decreasing CO2 pollution to 300 ppm from the current dangerous 392 ppm and certainly should not be increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution (all fossil fuels must be kept in the ground if we are to save the Planet) ; ( Natural Gas (mainly methane) is not clean energy, methane is 72 times worse than CO2 as a GHG on a 20 year time scale and, depending upon the rate of methane leakage, natural gas burning can be as dirty as coal burning greenhouse gas-wise; and © Pollutants from gas leakage and gas burning pose a chemical risk to residents, agriculture and the environment. Please use this article as a resource and tell everyone you can why we must oppose transition to gas-fired power. References [1]. “Top science and economics experts: Carbon Tax needed and NOT Carbon Tradingâ€, 300,org [2]. “Climate genocide†[3]. Adam Morton and Tom Arup, â€Greens slam Gillard on brown coal export dealâ€, The Age, 26 June 2010. [4]. Gideon Polya, “Australia’s “5% off 2000 level by 2020†endangers Australia, Humanity and Biosphereâ€, Yarra Valley Climate Action Group. [5]. Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, “Terra quasi-incognita: beyond the 2 degree C lineâ€< 4 Degrees & Beyond, International Climate Conference, 26-30 September 2009, Oxford University, UK. [6]. Dr Vicky Pope, “Met Office warn of “catastrophic†rise in temperatureâ€, The Sunday Times, 19 December 2008. [7]. Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows, “Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trendsâ€, Proc. Trans. Roy. Soc, A, 2008. [8]. James Hansen, “Storms of My Grandchildren. The truth about the coming climate catastrophe and out last chance to save humanityâ€â€, Bloomsbury, London & New York, 2009. [9]. “300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppmâ€, 300.org. [10]. Professors O. Hoegh-Guldberg, P. J. Mumby and colleagues, “Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidificationâ€, Science 14 December 2007, Vol. 318. no. 5857, pp. 1737 – 1742. [11]. Professor Peter Seligman, “Australian Sustainable Energy – by the Numbersâ€, Melbourne Energy Institute, University of Melbourne, 2010. [12]. .Beyond Zero Emissions, “Zero Carbon Australia Stationary Energy Planâ€, 2010. [13]. Mark Z. Jacobson and Mark A. Delucchi, “A path to sustainable energy by 2030â€, Scientific American, November 2009,p(p 58 – 65. [14]. James Hansen, “Copenhagen summit – Is there any real chance of averting the climate crisis?â€, Guardian, 29 November 2009. [15]. Gideon Polya, “Correcting the Australian Government – natural gas is NOT clean energyâ€, Open Forum, 7 February 2010. [16]. Green Energy Markets, “Fast-tracking Victoria’s clean energy future to replace Hazelwoodâ€, 2010. [17]. Professor Robert Howarth, “Preliminary assessment of the greenhouse gas emissions from natural gas obtained by hydraulic fracturingâ€, Cornell University, 1 April 2010. [18]. Gideon Polya, “Gulf oil & gas disaster, lobbyists, Obama and huge threat of natural gas (methane) to Humanity and Biosphereâ€, Bellaciao, 19 June 2010. [19]. David Lewis, “EPA confirms high Natural gas leakage ratesâ€, The Energy Collective, 7 December 2010. [20]. Gideon Polya, “Global avoidable mortality since 1950â€, G.M. Polya. Melbourne, 2007. [21]. Gideon Polya, “How many people die from carbon burning and climate change each year?â€, Yarra Valley Climate Action Group. [22]. G.W. Fischer et al., “Health effects due to motor vehicle air pollution in New Zealandâ€, Report to the Ministry of Transport, 2002. [23]. Paul Gipe, “Ontario study identifies social costs of coal-fired power plantsâ€, EV World, 7 July 2005. [24]. Gideon Polya, “Pollutants from coal-based electricity generation kill 170,000 people annuallyâ€, Green Blog, 14 June 2008. [25]. Gideon Polya, “Coal is king. Australia CO2 pollution fact sheetâ€, Yarra Valley Climate Action Group. [26]. Gideon Polya, “Pollution deaths from fossil fuel-based power plantsâ€, Yarra Valley Climate Action Group. [27]. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data quoted in “Natural Gas and the Environmentâ€, Natural Gas.org. [28]. Agnes Malouf and David Wimberley, “Health hazards of natural gasâ€, Environmental health, 2001. [29]. US EPA, Nitrogen dioxide, 20 October 2010. [30]. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, “Oxides of Nitrogenâ€. [31]. Environmental defence, “Nitrogen oxides air pollutionâ€, November 2003. [32]. Drew Warne-Smith, “Health fears over gas-fired generatorsâ€, The Australian, 12 November 2010. [33]. “Residents rally against stationâ€, [Gatton, Lockyer and Brisbane Valley] Star, 26 December 2010. [34]. S. Loranger and Y. Courchesne, “Health Risk Assessment of an Industrial Site Contaminated With Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Using CalTOX, an Environmental Fate/Exposure Modelâ€, SAR and QSAR in Environmental Research, Volume 6, Issue 1 &2, April 1997 , pages 81 - 104. [35]. Gasland –Australia.
  14. "What can decent people do to save the Planet from the Australian, EU and US climate criminals?" The bottom line in the Copenhagen Climate Summit should be (a) equal per capita greenhouse gas emissions for everyone and ( an additional but equitable penalty for First World countries for their disproportionately huge historical contribution to atmospheric carbon pollution. Anything less is pure and simple climate racism and climate injustice leading to climate genocide. Unfortunately climate criminal First World countries believe that they are much more deserving than others, and are lead by Copenhagen sabotaging, US surrogate, climate criminal Australia which wants a 2020 per capita GHG pollution for itself that would be over 60 times that of Bangladesh. Informed by “all men are created equal and have an unalienable right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happinessâ€, Climate Justice demands that “annual per capita GHG emissions†should at the very least be the same for “all men†- at the very least, because European countries have been responsible for about 73% of 1750-2006 historical carbon pollution of the atmosphere since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century (see Dr James Hansen’s 2008 Open Letter to PM Kevin Rudd of Australia). Below is a quantitative analysis of “annual per capita greenhouse gas pollution by 2020†inherent in the major Greenhouse Gas reduction proposals put forward at the December 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference. Data on the past and projected populations of Developed and Developing countries is available from the UN Population Division. Data on the past and projected greenhouse gas emissions of Developed and Developing countries is conveniently summarized by the US Environmental Protection Agency (see “Global Greenhouse Gas Dataâ€) and is set out below (Gt CO2-e = billions of tonnes of GHGs measured as CO2-equivalent). Developed country GHG emissions (Gt CO2-e): 15.0 (1990), 16.5 (1995), 18.0 (2000), 19 (2005), 20.0 (2010), 21.0 (2015), 22.0 (2020). Developed country population (billions): 1.147 (1990), 1.175 (1995), 1.195 (2000), 1,217 (2005), 1.237 (2010), 1,255 (2015), 1.268 (2020). Developed country “annual per capita GHG pollution†(tonnes CO2-e per person per yearâ€: 13.1 (1990), 14.0 (1995), 15.1 (2000), 15.6 (2005), 16.2 (2010), 16.7 (2015), 17.4 (2020). Developing country GHG emissions (Gt CO2-e): 10.0 (1990), 12.0 (1995), 14.5 (2000), 16.0 (2005), 18.5 (2010), 21.0 (2015), 24.0 (2020). Developing country population (billions): 4.143 (1990), 4.538 (1995), 4.920 (2000), 5.296 (2005), 5.671 (2010), 6.071 (2015), 6.406 (2020). Developing country “annual per capita GHG pollution†(tonnes CO2-e per person per yearâ€: 2.41 (1990), 2.64 (1995), 2.95 (2000), 3.02 (2005), 3.26 (2010), 3.46 (2015), 3.75 (2020). For a detailed analysis of the above data see “Climate justice & climate injustice: Australia wants a 2020 per capita GHG pollution 15 times greater than Developing World’sâ€, put on the Web by the Yarra Valley Climate Action Group. “Annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution†in units of “tonnes CO2-equivalent per person per year†(2005-2008 data) is 0.9 (Bangladesh), 0.9 (Pakistan), 2.2 (India), 3.2 (the Developing World), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 16 (the Developed World), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; or 54 if Australia’s huge Exported CO2 pollution is included) (for sources see (see Wikipedia, “List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions per capita†; Dr Gideon Polya, “Pro-coal Australian Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) devalues Australian lives, threatens Biosphere and ignores Scienceâ€, 2009 ; Michael Szabo, “Cut CO2 to India’s level, top scientist urgesâ€, Reuters, 28 May 2008 ; Ross Garnaut, The Garnaut Climate Change Review, Chapter 7: http://www.garnautreview.org.au/chp7.htm ; Hal Turton, “Greenhouse gas emissions in industrialized countries. Where does Australia stand?â€, Australia Institute, 2004). What do the various Copenhagen proposals mean in terms of “annual per capita GHG emissions†in “tonnes CO2-e per person per year†by 2020? And how do these proposed per capita values compare with a conveniently assumed 2020 Bangladesh value of 1 tonne CO2-e per person per year? Some of the major propositions at the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference are listed below in order of DECREASING acceptability. 1. The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) proposal for “55% of 1990 levels by 2020 for Developed Countries†would mean that their per capita would go from 16 to 6.5 [6.5 times Bangladesh’s] while Developing Countries would “in aggregate aim to achieve significant deviations [downwards] from baselines [bAU?] by 2020 [less than 3.8 i.e. less than 3.8 times Bangladesh’s?] (see New York Times). 2. The UN Draft Proposal for “60-75% of 1990 levels by 2020 for Developed Countries†would mean that their average per capita would go from 16 to 7.1 – 8.9 in 2020 [7.1-8.9 times Bangladesh’s] (see New York Times). 3. India has revised its previous reported commitment that it would not exceed commitment that it will not exceed the average per capita for Developed Countries means that its per capita will increase on current projections from 2.2 to at most 8.9 by 2020 [see item #2; 8.9 times Bangladesh’s] (see: http://carbonoffsetsdaily.com/.../). 4. Notwithstanding China’s rapid uptake of renewable energy and its commitment to reduce carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 40 to 45 percent by 2020, China’s greenhouse gas pollution is predicted to double by 2020 relative to the 2005 value according to various Western experts (see: http://news.yahoo.com/.../). This means China’s per capita will increase from circa 6 to a per capita of 2 x 7,527 Mt CO2-e/1,431 million persons = 10.5 [10.5 times Bangladesh’s] (for GHG data). 5. Obama USA’s proposal for “83% of 1990 value by 2020†would mean that its per capita would go from 27 to 0.83 x 5,177 Mt CO2-e / 346 million persons = 12.4 in 2020 [12.4 times Bangladesh’s] (for 1990 GHG data see). 6. Australia’s highly conditional best offer of “75% of 2000 value by 2020†would mean that Australia’s domestic per capita would go from 30 to 17.2 in 2020 [17.2 times that of Bangladesh] (and its domestic plus exported per capita would go from 54 to 62 tonnes CO2-e per person per year in 2020 [62 times that of Bangladesh]). Clearly the AOSIS proposal is by far the best on offer at Copenhagen and the US and Australian proposals are so destructive and so far removed from reality as to invite sanctions, boycotts, green tariffs, reparations demands, international criminal court prosecutions and other legal and trade retaliation by an indignant World. However the AOSIS proposal would only be an initial step because top scientists are in actuality demanding NEGATIVE greenhouse gas emissions. Thus top climate scientists are now advocating a return of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration from the current 390 parts per million to about 300 ppm for a safe ands sustainable planet for all peoples and all species (see 300.org). A return to circa 300 ppm CO2 will mean drawdown of CO2 from the atmosphere i.e. NEGATIVE CO2 emissions are inescapably required. The Australian and US sabotage of the Copenhagen Climate Conference is likely to be successful. These greedy, racist, profligate countries in a process involving intrinsic climate racism and climate injustice will have essentially declared climate war on the Developing World, worsening the already-commenced climate genocide of non-Europeans.. Both Dr James Lovelock FRS (Gaia hypothesis) and Professor Kevin Anderson ( Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, UK) have recently estimated that fewer than 1 billion people will survive this century due to unaddressed, man-made global warming – these estimates translating to a climate genocide involving deaths of 10 billion people this century, this including 6 billion under-5 year old infants, 3 billion Muslims, 2 billion Indians, 0.5 billion Bengalis, 0.3 billion Pakistanis and 0.3 billion Bangladeshis (see: http://gpolya.newsvine.com/.../ and http://bellaciao.org/.../). What can decent people do to save the Planet from the Australian, EU and US climate criminals? Decent citizens and decent governments must respond by Sanctions, Boycotts, Green Tariffs, Reparations Demands and International Criminal Court prosecutions against the people, politicians, corporations and countries complicit in the worsening climate genocide. Buying goods and services from racist, genocidal, climate criminal Australia and like countries is like buying soap made in Auschwitz.
  15. Photo credit: andriux-uk Top climate scientists in the top scientific journal Nature recently stated that we have exceeded crucial planetary boundaries beyond which we are at high risk of unacceptable environmental change. These and other top climate scientists and biologists are stating clearly that the atmospheric CO2 concentration must be urgently returned to 300-350 ppm for planetary safety. Unfortunately, World governments are ignoring the science and are committed to increasing CO2, evidently not understanding that there can be no negotiation with the laws of Physics and Chemistry. An Australian husband and wife with homeopathic beliefs were recently jailed for the manslaughter of their horribly neglected child. Accountability must also apply to all people who are ignoring scientific advice and international law and are complicit in the carnage of US wars (9-11 million excess deaths in US wars, 1990-2009, including 4 million infants) and in the worsening climate genocide (that will kill 10 billion people, including 6 billion infants). This inescapable legal, business, political and electoral Accountability for war crimes and climate crimes is detailed in a Letter being transmitted to all Federal MPs in climate criminal Australia (a world leader in annual per capita greenhouse gas pollution) and indeed to everyone so that, unlike many Germans in 1945, they cannot say “we didn’t knowâ€. Recently some of the World’s top climate scientists in a peer-refereed paper in the top scientific journal Nature stated that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) should be reduced from the present circa 390 parts per million (ppm) “and should not exceed 350 parts per million†in order to prevent “unacceptable environmental changeâ€. [1]. Similarly, a Working Party of the prestigious UK Royal Society recently stated that "The Earth’s atmospheric CO2 level must be returned to less than 350ppm to reverse this escalating ecological crisis and to 320ppm to ensure permanent planetary healthâ€, a view consonant with that of other top climate scientists who warn that the atmospheric CO2 must be urgently reduced to circa 300 ppm to save the Arctic ice, the Biosphere and Humanity . [2, 3]. Unfortunately World governments, backed by popular and corporate greed, are approaching the December 2009 Copenhagen Climate Summit negotiations committed to INCREASING atmospheric CO2, in stark contravention of the advice from the World’s top climate scientists. The best First World offer is from EU countries committed to no more than a 2 degree C temperature rise (relative to 1990), a ceiling of 450 ppm CO2-e greenhouse gas (GHG as CO2 equivalent) and a decrease in GHG pollution of 2% per year. [4]. However there can be no negotiation with the Laws of Physics and Chemistry. Thus over 90% of scientists polled at the March 2009 University of Copenhagen Climate Change Conference believed that 2 degrees C above 1990 was inevitable; the GHG concentration is already 475 ppm CO2-e (of which about 390 ppm is CO2); and top climate scientists from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, have recently estimated that an annual 6-8% decrease in GHG pollution is required to stabilize atmospheric CO2-e at the present level. [4-6]. Both the Biosphere and Humanity are already under acute threat. Australian medical science Nobel Laureate Professor Peter Doherty has said “We are in real dangerâ€. The present species extinction rate is 100-1,000 times the normal rate. 16 million people die avoidably each year from deprivation, this carnage including about 9.5 million under-5 year old infants and increasingly being impacted by man-made climate change. [7, 8] Top UK climate scientist Dr James Lovelock FRS has estimated that 1 billion people or fewer will survive this century due to insufficiently addressed, man-made climate change. This translates (from UN Population Division projections) to a First World-imposed climate genocide that is predicted to kill 10 billion non-Europeans this century, this carnage including 6 billion under-5 year old infants, 3 billion Muslims (a Muslim Holocaust 500 times greater than the WW2 Jewish Holocaust or the "forgotten" WW2 Bengali Holocaust), 2 billion Indians, 1.4 billion non-Arab Africans, 0.6 billion Arabs, 0.5 billion Bengalis, 0.3 billion Pakistanis and 0.3 billion Bangladeshis. [9]. Recently an Australian mother and her husband with homeopathic beliefs were sentenced to lengthy prison terms for the manslaughter of their child through failure to seek expert medical help in a timely fashion for a treatable condition. [10]. "Those who knowingly ignore, deny or obfuscate the horrendous harm from war and man-made climate change become accessories after the fact of war crimes and climate genocide, respectively." If lengthy imprisonment is the fit punishment for the manslaughter of ONE innocent child by no doubt loving but misguided parents, what then for the deliberate, knowing, and hence intentional mass murder of MILLIONS through war crimes and BILLIONS through climate crimes, the mass murder of the 4 million under-5 year old infants (so far) through war criminal US Alliance-imposed war and deprivation (passive genocide) in the still-occupied Occupied Palestinian, Iraqi and Afghan Territories and the mass murder of the 6 billion under-5 year old infants who will perish in the 21st century, First world-imposed climate genocide of 10 billion non-Europeans? Articles 55 and 56 of the Geneva Convention relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War unequivocally state that an Occupier must provide life-sustaining food and medical services to its conquered Subjects “to the fullest extent of the means available to itâ€. [11]. However UN Population Division and UNICEF data inform us that post-invasion excess deaths in the Occupied Palestinian, Iraqi and Afghan Territories total 0.2 million, 0.6 million and 2.3 million, respectively, and the annual under-5 infants deaths (90% avoidable) are 4,000, 41,000 and 338,000, respectively. Under-5 year infant deaths in Iraq under Sanctions (1990-2003) totalled 1.2 million. [12, 13]. A fundamental cause of this horrendous mass infant mortality is revealed by the World Health Organization (WHO) - what the Catholic Church has described as the Gaza Concentration Camp has been under blockade by war criminal Occupier Israel for 3 years and the annual total per capita medical expenditure permitted by the war criminal Occupiers in Occupied Iraq and Occupied Afghanistan totals $29 and $124, respectively, as compared to $6,714 and $3,122 in Occupier US and Occupier Australia, respectively. [14]. The UN Genocide Convention insists on prosecution of all people – whether governments or individuals - complicit in the crime of genocide, which it defines in Article 2 thus: “In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial or religious group, as such: a) Killing members of the group; Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.†[15]. Such prosecution under the UN Genocide Convention for deliberate, intentional, knowing Climate Genocide (or for deliberate, knowing, intentional war crimes in the ongoing Palestinian, Genocide, Iraq Genocide and Afghan Genocide) applies to anyone complicit in genocide “whether they be constitutionally responsible rulers, public officials or private individuals†i.e. to elected governments, public servants and to the individual voters who elect them or fund them. [15]. "Decent people must stand up to be counted for the sake of their children, their grandchildren, Humanity and the Biosphere." Those who knowingly ignore, deny or obfuscate the horrendous harm from war and man-made climate change become accessories after the fact of war crimes and climate genocide, respectively. While the US does not recognize the authority of the International Criminal Court (ICC), US Federal Law makes it a capital offence to commit war crimes causing death in violating International Conventions such as the Geneva Convention and the UN Genocide Convention to which the US is a signatory. [16]. By way of example to illustrate the dimension of the ongoing US Alliance atrocities, the current "annual death rate" is 7% for Occupied Afghan under-5 year old infants under the US Alliance - as compared to that of 4% (for Poles under the Nazis in WW2), 5% (French Jews under the Nazis and the Nazi-collaborator Vichy régime in WW2), 13% (Australian POWs of the Japanese in WW2) and 19% (Jews in Nazi-occupied Europe). [17]. The members of the US Alliance involved in the ongoing Iraqi Genocide and Afghan Genocide and the supporters of the US-backed occupation, colonization and ethnic cleansing of Palestine (the Palestinian Genocide) are known to all – these are variously the US, the UK, the EU, Canada, Israel, NATO and Australia. [8]. But who are the worst offenders in the worsening climate genocide – something that the World’s island nations diplomatically but incorrectly euphemize as “benign genocideâ€? [18]. “Annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution†in units of “tonnes CO2-equivalent per person per year†is presently 0.9 (Bangladesh), 0.9 (Pakistan), 2.2 (India), 3.1 (Developing World), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 16 (Developed World), 23 (Canada), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; or 54 if Australia’s huge Exported CO2 pollution is included). [9, 19, 20]. Australia is evidently a world leader in annual per capita GHG pollution – its present value is 54 tonnes CO2-e per person per year (with its huge coal and LNG exports included), 60 times that of Bangladesh, an impoverished country acutely threatened by man-made global warming. But who are the worst offenders in the worsening climate genocide – something that the World’s island nations diplomatically but incorrectly euphemize as “benign genocideâ€? [18]. “Annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution†in units of “tonnes CO2-equivalent per person per year†is presently 0.9 (Bangladesh), 0.9 (Pakistan), 2.2 (India), 3.1 (Developing World), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 16 (Developed World), 23 (Canada), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; or 54 if Australia’s huge Exported CO2 pollution is included). [9, 19, 20]. Australia is evidently a world leader in annual per capita GHG pollution – its present value is 54 tonnes CO2-e per person per year (with its huge coal and LNG exports included), 60 times that of Bangladesh, an impoverished country acutely threatened by man-made global warming. What can decent people do about the ongoing Muslim Holocaust and the worsening Climate Genocide? Peace is the only way but silence kills and silence is complicity. Decent folk must (1) inform everyone they can about these atrocities (we cannot walk by on the other side) and (2) make those responsible Accountable for war crimes and climate crimes. Accountability at a global as well as an intra-national level can be secured via Sanctions, Boycotts, Green Tariffs, Reparations Demands and International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutions applied to People, Public Servants, Politicians, Collectives, Corporations and Countries complicit in war crimes and climate crimes. However within democracies every voter becomes complicit in the crimes of elected representatives. Thus in climate criminal, war criminal Australia those voting for the pro-war, pro-coal, war criminal and climate criminal Liberal Party-National Party Coalition Opposition or the pro-war, pro-coal, war criminal and climate criminal Labor Party Government (collectively known as the Lib-Labs) become complicit in war crimes and climate crimes. The Australian Lib-Labs currently have about 90% support from an electorate remorselessly propagandized by the Murdoch Empire-dominated media with the pro-environment, pro-peace, anti-coal and anti-war Australian Greens only having about 10% electoral support. Indeed older people (older voters) have 3 selfish reasons for taking action over man-made global warming. Older people are peculiarly threatened by the worsening climate emergency in three key areas that can be summarized by the "three Ds" of Devaluation (their pensions, superannuation, investments and family support will necessarily devalue in a non-sustainable carbon economy but GDP growth is assured in a renewable and non-carbon economy); Death (older people are frailer and more susceptible to heat stress through a weakened brain signalling system); and Descendants (their descendants will hate them for what they have done to the planet). [21]. However within democracies every voter becomes complicit in the crimes of elected representatives. Thus in climate criminal, war criminal Australia those voting for the pro-war, pro-coal, war criminal and climate criminal Liberal Party-National Party Coalition Opposition or the pro-war, pro-coal, war criminal and climate criminal Labor Party Government (collectively known as the Lib-Labs) become complicit in war crimes and climate crimes. The Australian Lib-Labs currently have about 90% support from an electorate remorselessly propagandized by the Murdoch Empire-dominated media with the pro-environment, pro-peace, anti-coal and anti-war Australian Greens only having about 10% electoral support. Decent people must stand up to be counted for the sake of their children, their grandchildren, Humanity and the Biosphere. A powerful message for individual and collective action and empowerment is summarized as the ABC of action over war crimes and climate crimes: A, (hold those responsible for war crimes and climate crimes Accountable); B, wear a Badge (e.g. saying “PEACE†or “300 ppmâ€); and C, have a readily distributable Credo saying, for example: “Stop war, invasion, occupation, war crimes and genocide – stop killing children†and “For a safe and sustainable planet for all peoples and all species we must urgently reduce the atmospheric CO2 concentration to 300 ppmâ€. [3, 22, 23, 24]. References [1]. Johan Rockström, Will Steffen, Kevin Noone, Ã…sa Persson, F. Stuart Chapin, III, Eric F. Lambin, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Carl Folke, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Björn Nykvist, Cynthia A. de Wit, Terry Hughes, Sander van der Leeuw, Henning Rodhe, Sverker Sörlin, Peter K. Snyder, Robert Costanza, Uno Svedin, Malin Falkenmark, Louise Karlberg, Robert W. Corell, Victoria J. Fabry, James Hansen, Brian Walker, Diana Liverman, Katherine Richardson, Paul Crutzen & Jonathan A. Foley, “A safe operating space for humanityâ€, Nature, 461, 472-475, 2009: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/full/461472a.html. [2]. Output of the technical working group meeting, The Royal Society, London, 6th July, 2009, “The Coral Reef Crisis: scientific justification for critical CO2 threshold levels of less than 350ppm†[Working group signatories Professor John Veron (Coral Reef Research), Dr Mary Stafford-Smith (Coral Reef Research), Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (University of Queensland) and 20 other eminent scientists including Sir David Attenborough FRS (working group co-chair)]: http://www.carbonequity.info/PDFs/The-Coral-Reef-Crisis.pdf. [3]. 300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm. [4]. Gideon Polya, “Climate lies doom planet. 2C inevitable at 475 ppm CO2-eâ€. [5]. David Adam, “Scientists fear worst on global warmingâ€, Guardian, 14 April 2009. [6]. Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows, “Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trendsâ€, Proc. Trans. Roy. Soc, A, 2008. [7]. Phillip S. Levin, Donald A. Levin, “The real biodiversity crisisâ€, Macroscope, 2002. [8]. Gideon Polya, “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950â€, G.M. Polya, Melbourne, 2007. [9]. Gideon Polya, “Letter to the World re Climate Racism, Climate Terrorism & Climate Genocide by Apartheid Australiaâ€, Bellaciao, September 2009. [10]. Kim Arlington, “Parents failed Gloria, jailed for “cruelty†[manslaughter]â€, Sydney Morning Herald, 29 September 2009. [11]. Geneva Convention Relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War: http://www.un.org/preventgenocide/rwanda/text-images/Geneva_CivilPersons. [12]. UN Population Division. [13]. UNICEF. [14]. WHO. [15]. UN Genocide Convention. [16]. Cornell University Law School, “War crimesâ€. [17]. Gideon Polya, “Polish Holocaust (1939-1945) & Afghan Holocaust (2001-)., Newsvine, 3 September 2009: http://gpolya.newsvine.com/_news/2009/09/02/3218030-polish-holocaust-1939-1945-afghan-holocaust-2001-?groupId=87 . [18]. ABC Radio Australia, “World Island Nations fear benign genocide if no action on climate changeâ€, 22 September 2009. [19]. Gideon Polya, “Australia’s “5% off 2000 GHG pollution by 2020†endangers Australia, Humanity and the Biosphereâ€, Yarra Valley Climate Action Group. [20]. Gideon Polya, “Climate Justice & Climate Injustice: Australia wants a 2020 per capita GHG pollution 15 times Developing World’sâ€. [21]. Gideon Polya, “3 reasons why older people should care about climate change actionâ€, Open Forum, 10 August 2009. [22]. Gideon Polya, “Accountability, Badge & Credo (ABC) strategy to save the Planet from Climate Genocide & Climate Doomâ€, Bellaciao, 16 May 2009. [23]. Gideon Polya, “Children of Lesser God. MWC News & Gideon Polya World #1 for “thou shalt not kill childrenâ€â€, MWC News, 15 January 2008: http://mwcnews.net/content/view/19454/42/ . [24]. Yarra Valley Climate Action Group, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, “Climate Emergency Facts and Required Actionsâ€.